NFL Playoffs 2025: Previewing Texans vs. Chiefs Divisional round matchup

The Kansas City Chiefs have become the NFL's new dynasty, and also their most widely-reviled team. They're 15-2 this season, but anyone who watched them would tell you they didn't feel like one of the NFL's best teams. An inconsistent offense, that spent most of the year doing juuuust enough to get by, each week felt like we were all waiting for reality to hit this team. But it never did.

Now, they're set to chase their third straight Super Bowl and fourth in six seasons, but have to face a Texans team who feel pretty good after beating up on the Los Angeles Charges in the Wild Card round.

Will the Chiefs continue to live their charmed existence this season? Or will the Texans give them a dose of the reality many have been clamoring for all season long? Let's break it down.

Tale of the Tape: The Chiefs beat the Texans near the end of the regular season, a 27-19 win in Kansas City in Week 16. Like most of the Chiefs' wins this season, it wasn't the prettiest game, but it was good enough. Patrick Mahomes threw for 260 yards and a touchdown, while running for another, and the defense forced a pair of C.J. Stroud turnovers to help keep Kansas City in front.

Chiefs' Offense: We got a look at what this offense looks like without Mahomes in Week 18 against the Broncos, and it was as ugly as we all expected. The Chiefs scored exactly zero points, and had just five first downs in the game.

Mahomes is the engine that keeps things running in Kansas City. Everyone knows that. But even with Mahomes at the helm, this offense has felt...uninspired this season. They rank 15th in points scored and 16th in total yards. The run game hasn't been great; Isiah Pacheco averaged just 3.7 yards per carry before his injury, and Kareem Hunt has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry as his replacement.

The passing game hasn't been much better; Kansas City still hasn't found an adequate replacement for Tyreek Hill three years later; Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins failed to consistently impress this season, and even the stellar Travis Kelce had a somewhat down year, racking up just 823 yards and three touchdowns. The Chiefs do just enough to get by on offense, and for the most part this season, it's worked.

Chiefs' Defense: If you're looking for the secret to Kansas City's success this season, the defense is it. They rank fourth in points allowed, and ninth in total yards allowed on the year. How do they do it? They get to the quarterback and get in his face. The Chiefs have the fourth-highest blitz percentage of any team in the NFL, and as a result they rank fifth in quarterback pressure percentage, and have more knockdowns than any team in the league. Chris Jones and Tershel Wharton might be the best defensive tackle tandem in the league at creating quarterback pressure; even if they don't get the sack, they're going to make you rush, and force you into bad decisions.

The run defense is similarly stout, ranking eighth in yards and fifth in yards per attempt. For all Mahomes' gifts, at the end of the day this team wants to grind you up into a fine powder.

Path to Victory: Make C.J. Stroud's day a nightmare. Lock down the Texans' offense and exploit their vulnerable offensive line. Get just enough magic from Mahomes and company to get the win.

Texans' Offense: Houston's offense remains a truly fascinating unit. Much like Kansas City, they rank far below where you'd expect them to be based on their quarterback, but with far more talent at wide receiver and running back than the Chiefs can boast at this point.

The culprit? An offensive line that has allowed the third-most sacks in the NFL this season, and has caused Joe Mixon to have to fight hard for every single one of his 1,016 yards in the regular season and his 106 yards against the Chargers last week.

Making matters worse, the Texans' receiver corps is down both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, leaving Nico Collins as the only starter from the beginning of the season.

Texans' Defense: Much like the Chiefs, the Texans are largely fueled by their defense this season, but there are some differences here. Houston ranks sixth in total yards allowed, but rank just 14th in points allowed. They have the sixth-best pass defense in total yards, and the sixth-best defense in terms of allowing rushing touchdowns.

They're fantastic at getting to the quarterback; they rank fifth in the NFL in sacks despite blitzing on just 24 percent of snaps. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson have been absolute terrors, both posting at least 11 sacks on the year, and that's not counting the four sacks they nabbed on Justin Herbert last week. The Texans also have a knack for forcing turnovers; they picked off 19 passes in the regular season, second-best in the NFL, and picked off another four against Herbert and the Chargers in the Wild Card.

So where's the problem? For all their aggressiveness, the Texans also have a knack for giving up passing touchdowns. coughing up 31 scores through the air, second-worst in the league, despite allowing just 5.7 yards per attempt (third-best in the NFL). So you may not get a lot of yards against this team, but you're probably going to score points. I'm just as confused as you are.

Path to Victory: Keep Mahomes contained, and try to keep C.J. Stroud upright long enough to make plays. Try to give Nico Collins enough room to get going.

The Verdict: The Texans' defense absolutely stomped the life out of the Chargers in the Wild Card round, but Mahomes is not Justin Herbert and can handle the pressure. The Chiefs have been living an absolutely charmed life this season, and I suspect they have enough magic left in the tank to survive this one. Can the Texans win? Sure. Will they win? Probably not.

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