NFL Playoffs 2025: Previewing Vikings vs. Rams Wild Card matchup

The Los Angeles Rams are one of the strangest teams in this year's NFL postseason. On paper, this team is a lower-tier offense by most statistical measures, lacks the level of star power or hype of many of the other playoff teams, and the defense could best be described as "physically present" most of the time.

And yet, here they are, hosting the Minnesota Vikings, a team who looked downright dominant at times this season on both sides of the ball, in a Wild Card game.

Will the Rams pull the home upset? Or will the visiting Vikings remind everyone of just how good they were all season? Let's break it down.

One note before we begin: this game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Arizona due to the wildfires that have devastated the Los Angeles metro area the last few days.

Tale of the Tape: Minnesota was shocked by the Rams in Week 8, a 30-20 win powered exclusively by Stafford, who went 25/34 for 279 yards and four touchdowns.

Vikings' Offense: Minnesota comes into this game boasting a top 10 offensive unit, powered by their high-octane passing game, led by quarterback Sam Darnold. Yes, I know; it's still weird as hell to say that.

But the fact of the matter is, Darnold has been stellar this season for the Vikings; he threw for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on the year. What orchestrated this change?

One of the most talented receiver corps in the NFL. When you're throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Jalen Nailor, things get a lot easier than they ever were in New York or Carolina.

It's not all been sunshine and rainbows; Darnold looked the worst he's looked all season in the team's finale against the Detroit Lions, a game the Vikings needed to win to clinch the top seed in the playoffs. But that was the first time since Week 5 against the Jets that Darnold had posted less than 200 passing yards, so perhaps it was more an aberration than the start of a regression.

The running game has been solid with Aaron Jones, but seldom spectacular. Jones has been the workhorse in the backfield, and it's not clear if Cam Akers is ever going to be able to shoulder the majority of the workload in a backfield, but they do more than enough on the ground to keep defenses honest.

Vikings' Defense: Minnesota is incredibly good against the run; they rank second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, seventh in yards per carry, and eighth in touchdowns allowed. It's a good thing, too, because the pass defense is...less than ideal.

We'll start with the good news; the Vikes' pass defense is the most ball-hawking unit in all of football, with 24 interceptions. They excel at picking off passes. They're incredibly aggressive, with the highest blitz percentage of any team in the league, and that's resulted in 49 sacks, the fourth-most in all of football. Their goal is to keep the quarterback off balance and capitalize on any mistakes he may make.

Now for the bad news: when the blitz doesn't get home, and the secondary isn't picking off passes, this team is very vulnerable against the pass. They've allowed the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL, and conceded 24 touchdowns through the air. This is the nature of aggressively blitzing, ball-hawk teams; when it works, it works great. When it doesn't...well, you get smoked by the Lions in the most important game of your season.

Path to Victory: This is likely going to be on the offense to keep Minnesota up in this game. The defense needs to get in Matthew Stafford's face and make him make mistakes; he's been absolutely brutal against the blitz this season, despite his historic success in that area. Get up early, get some cushion, pin your ears back and go. Don't let them get anything going on the ground. Get Darnold going early, and you'll be golden.

Rams' Offense: This team is the definition of inconsistency. They'll go out and beat the Bills 44-42 and throw for 320 yards, then fail to crack 200 yards through the air in any of their next three games. There is no rhyme or reason to when the Rams' offense will start to click, but when it does, they can put up points with anyone.

Star wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were both banged up at various points this season, and without them, there's not a lot of consistent joy to be found in the passing game. With them both healthy and functional, Stafford spreads the ball around pretty well, but it's hard to trust Demarcus Robinson or Tutu Atwell to carry the offense.

Their run game solid, but almost never spectacular. Kyren Williams was almost exclusively the running back this season and posted 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns, but no one else in Los Angeles ran for more than 207. Williams wasn't really a big play back, either; he averaged just 4.1 yards per carry on the year. This team tends to grind out games unless the passing game gets going, and this season that's been far from guaranteed.

Rams' Defense: The Rams employed a "bend but don't break" strategy on defense this year, ranking 26th in total yards allowed, but improving to 17th in points per game allowed. They were pretty much the lower middle of the pack against both the pass (20th) and the run (22nd) in terms of yards allowed, but had a weird knack for giving up passing touchdowns, allowing 29 on the year, which ranks them 28th.

They weren't a heavy blitzing team, rushing on just 23.1 percent of snaps, and ranked 22nd in sacks. They ranked 21st in pressure percentage, and were overall pretty unremarkable. The singular places the Rams were remarkable defensively were in missed tackles, where they had the 7th-most in the league, and yards after the catch, where they also ranked seventh-worst in the league. I think you can see where I'm going here; this team excelled at whiffing on tackles and letting plays break for bigger gains than they were supposed to, which is not something you want your defense to be good at.

Path to Victory: Stafford and the passing game have to come up big in this one. It's absolutely the key to a win here. If the Rams can keep Stafford upright and functional, they've got a good shot. If they don't, or he caves under pressure, it could be a very long night. The Vikings are going to score points and the only way you'll be able to keep up is a vintage Stafford performance.

The Verdict: There is a viable way in which the Rams win this game; we've seen it before this season. But I'm skeptical as to whether they can pull the same trick twice; this feels like a good Wild Card team coming in to beat a mediocre division champ. Give me the Vikings here.

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