Nightmare College Football Playoff scenario for committee, Indiana

One college football scenario that's been nagging at me as the regular season nears its end is what will the College Football Playoff committee do with Indiana should it lose to Ohio State on Saturday?

The committee released its third set of rankings Tuesday night, and they slotted Indiana at fifth in the rankings, but seventh in the bracket as Miami and Boise State fell in as the third and fourth highest-ranked conference champions as of Week 13, thus in the top four of the bracket. Here's what the bracket would look like if the season ended today.

The first domino to fall in the final two weeks of the regular season will be when No. 5 Indiana plays at No. 2 Ohio State at noon on Saturday. As of Tuesday night, the Buckeyes are favored by 13.5 points, or two touchdowns, and should Vegas be right it will be interesting to see what the committee decides.

As of the third set of rankings, the committee ranked four two-loss SEC teams in the top 12, with No. 11 Tennessee missing out on making the bracket due to BYU, the highest ranked Big 12 team, being ranked at 14.

Here's a scenario that should scare Indiana, and one that is very possible. If Indiana loses to Ohio State on Saturday and doesn't keep it close and the SEC ends the regular season with four two-loss teams, who does the committee leave out?

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In this scenario, let's pretend Texas runs the table and beats Alabama, who has an upper hand in the SEC's tiebreakers as of Week 13, in the SEC Championship. The committee would then rank the four conference champions, the Big Ten Championship loser, Penn State, Notre Dame and the Group of 5 winner (this is if Penn State and Notre Dame win out; the Fighting Irish have a tough game against undefeated Army on Saturday). They'd be left with four spots and five teams vying for those spots: 11-1 Indiana, 10-3 Alabama, 10-2 Georgia, 10-2 Ole Miss and 10-2 Tennessee.

All four of those SEC teams have much better wins than Indiana. Alabama beat Georgia. Georgia beat Tennessee, Texas and Clemson, who could still win the ACC. Ole Miss beat Georgia. Tennessee beat Alabama. Indiana's best win in this scenario would be over Washington, Nebraska or Michigan, depending on how those teams finish the regular season. None are close to being ranked in the Top 25 as of Week 13.

On the other hand, Indiana would have the 'best' loss out of those five teams, to Ohio State. Alabama's losses would be to Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Texas in the SEC Championship. Georgia's losses are to Alabama and Ole Miss. Ole Miss' losses are to Kentucky and LSU. Tennessee's losses are to Arkansas and Georgia.

I think Georgia would make it due to the strength of its wins and its 'good' losses. After that, it's kind of up in the air. The committee has shown some bias towards the SEC in the past. In 2017, the committee selected one-loss Alabama over two-loss, Big Ten Champ Ohio State. Unfortunately for Indiana and college football in general, I think the committee would choose the SEC teams over Indiana due to their wins, despite all having more losses in this scenario.

The controversy that decision would cause would be massive and would leave fans with a bad taste in their mouths as the first 12-team playoff begins. Of course, all this could become moot if Indiana pulls off the upset on Saturday. It's the biggest game in Indiana football history. Kickoff is scheduled for noon at Ohio Stadium for Fox's Big Noon Kickoff game of the week.

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