The Big Lead

Nolan Arenado Trade Talks Resume, But Uncertainty Remains

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By John Robinson IV

Sep 25, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third base Nolan Arenado (28) reacts in the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Sep 25, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third base Nolan Arenado (28) reacts in the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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Trade rumors surrounding St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado have resurfaced, with reports indicating that discussions between the Cardinals and the Houston Astros have resumed. However, sources suggest the talks were brief, and there is no certainty that a deal will materialize.

Arenado, a perennial All-Star and Gold Glove winner, still has $74 million remaining on his contract over the next three seasons. Factoring in deferred money and contributions from the Colorado Rockies—his former team—the financial burden drops closer to $60 million. While the Cardinals may be open to moving him, it remains to be seen whether the Astros or another contender will make a serious push for the veteran third baseman.

One of the biggest obstacles to a potential trade is Arenado’s limited list of approved destinations. He has made it clear that he would only consider being dealt to a select group of teams, which includes the Astros, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and San Diego Padres. His top preference would be the Los Angeles Dodgers, but that option appears to be off the table, as the team is committed to Max Muncy at third base for the foreseeable future.

For the Astros, acquiring Arenado would require some roster adjustments. Houston has already made moves to shift longtime second baseman Jose Altuve to the outfield, and bringing in Arenado would likely necessitate further changes. The bigger question for the Astros—or any team considering a trade—is whether they are acquiring the Arenado of a few years ago, or a player who is beginning to decline.

Despite a somewhat down year in 2023, Arenado still posted a solid 2.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and showed flashes of his old self. Reports suggest he made adjustments to his swing that helped regain some lost bat speed, and he remains capable of hitting 25 home runs while maintaining a strong batting average around .280 to .290.

While the Cardinals appear motivated to explore trade options, Arenado’s market remains uncertain. The Dodgers are not an option, and other teams may hesitate to take on his contract. Whether Houston ultimately makes a move or another suitor emerges remains to be seen, but the speculation surrounding Arenado’s future is far from over.