The Big Lead

Only THREE NBA Teams Have Real Shot to Win a Championship This Year!

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By John Robinson IV

Feb 24, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) reacts after a play against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
Feb 24, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) reacts after a play against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
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In 2008, legendary coach Phil Jackson introduced the "40-20 Rule," which states that a team isn’t a true championship contender unless it wins 40 games before suffering 20 losses. This benchmark has largely held true, as only three teams in NBA history have won a title without meeting this criterion: the 1995 Houston Rockets, 2004 Detroit Pistons, and 2006 Miami Heat.

As of this weekend, three teams have officially met Jackson’s 40-20 standard for the 2024 season: the Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Boston Celtics. Meanwhile, teams like the Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, and Memphis Grizzlies have already suffered their 20th losses before reaching 40 wins, keeping the rule intact for the 19th consecutive year.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: The Rising Threat

OKC, Gonzaga, Chet
Feb 10, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Trey Murphy III (25) steals the ball away from Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Thunder have surged to the top of the Western Conference, boasting a young, versatile lineup. Their twin-tower approach featuring Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein has been dominant, outscoring opponents by 17.5 points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in MVP contention, while Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, and key veterans like Alex Caruso have elevated OKC into a legitimate title threat.

Despite their regular-season dominance, questions remain about their ability to navigate the playoffs. Last season, Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks exposed some of their weaknesses. If they face a battle-tested team like the Lakers, who have the experience and star power to exploit their inexperience, the Thunder may struggle in a deep postseason run.

2. Boston Celtics: The Complete Package

Boston, Celtics, Duk
Feb 20, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) looks on during the third quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Celtics have been a juggernaut this season, sitting at 41-6. They’ve won nine of their last ten games, often leading by 20 or more points. Their defense is elite, boasting a 104.6 defensive rating per 100 possessions, while their offense has become more fluid, ranking eighth in assists after finishing 23rd last season. Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Boston is poised for another deep playoff run.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers: The Dark Horse

Cleveland, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell
Jan 8, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) and guard Darius Garland (10) celebrate after Mitchell made a three point basket during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Cavaliers might not grab headlines like Boston or OKC, but they have the depth and defensive prowess to make noise in the playoffs. Donovan Mitchell provides clutch scoring, while Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and De’Andre Hunter create a balanced attack. Their recent three-point shooting improvement makes them even more dangerous heading into the postseason.

With these three teams leading the charge, the race for the NBA title is heating up. Whether the Thunder, Celtics, or Cavaliers can translate regular-season success into a championship remains to be seen, but history suggests the 40-20 benchmark is a strong indicator of a team’s legitimacy as a title contender.