Aaron Rodgers Tells Packers Fans to R-E-L-A-X; Is There a Reason to Be Concerned?
For the third straight season, the Packers are off to a 1-2 start. It’s been super painful to endure as a fan, but the season is obviously not over yet. In 2012, Green Bay rebounded from early losses to the 49ers and Seahawks to finish 11-5; last year, they dropped early games to San Francisco and Cincinnati, banged off four in a row, lost Aaron Rodgers for a stretch, and wound up winning the division with an 8-7-1 record thanks to collapses from Detroit (who finished 1-6) and Chicago (who finished 2-4).
There can be a very fine line between winning and losing in football — fumble luck, an unconscionable 60-yard pass interference penalty, or a touchdown-negating timeout that shouldn’t have been granted, for example — and that can be frustrating enough — but the Packers have been straight-up outplayed in their losses this year. That’s discouraging. What’s gone wrong?
AARON RODGERS HASN’T BEEN PERFECT
With the possible exception of the Broncos, no team relies on its quarterback to be brilliant to win games quite like the Packers do with Rodgers. There are lots of working parts here — passing options are sub-optimal when Jordy Nelson is blanketed, Eddie Lacy’s struggles have resulted in a bunch of 3rd-and-long’s, play-calling seems vanilla, and Rodgers hasn’t had much room to breathe — but he’s missed some throws that we’ve grown accustomed to him making, and that stands out.
For example, against Seattle, he had Jordy Nelson open on the sideline here, but threw it way over his head:
Here, Rodgers appeared to have Randall Cobb open, but didn’t see him:
A lot of Rodgers’ misses have been short; ESPN Stats and Info notes that Rodgers has under-thrown 11 passes over the last two weeks — the six against the Jets were the most in his career. This one, to Jordy Nelson against Detroit, is illustrative of the issue:
In one sense, Packers fans have been spoiled by Rodgers’ brilliance. Again, it’s not like he’s been bad, and we’ll walk through all of the things that are out of his control but nevertheless affect his performance, but he’s got to be better than he’s been for the Packers to turn their season around.
EDDIE LACY HASN’T BEEN SETTING THEM UP FOR SUCCESS
In the Seahawks, the Jets, and the Lions, the Packers have faced some of the best defensive lines in the league. The running game should theoretically improve against lesser units. However, to delve into cliché sportswriter speak, the Packers are a purportedly elite team; Eddie Lacy’s a purportedly elite running back, and he must average more than 3.1 yards per carry (with a long run of 17 yards so far this year) in order for Green Bay to beat good teams.
There are several reasons why this has to improve — some obvious, some tangential. It goes without saying that Green Bay needs the run to set up short yardage situations and to keep opponents from dropping their linebackers into coverage and backing up their safeties. There’s also the hope that, even if they don’t immediately pick up a bunch of yards, powerful carries will tire out the defensive line and pay dividends late in the game. That hasn’t really happened thus far.
To his credit, Lacy hasn’t been making excuses for his performance, but he also doesn’t yet know the proper solution. “I don’t know if I have to be more patient or speed things up,” Lacy said after Sunday’s loss. “But one way or another I’m responsible for the run game.”
The offensive line factors into both Lacy and Rodgers’ performance. Bryan Bulaga was out for six quarters against the Seahawks and Jets, and his replacement Derek Sherrod yielded three sacks. All told, the Packers have yielded nine sacks this year, trailing just Kansas City (11) and Jacksonville (17!) for most in the league. Some of that is that Rodgers holds onto the ball too long, but opposing defensive lines have been getting to him quickly, often without even having to blitz.
RANDALL COBB HAS TO STEP UP
Randall Cobb is playing for a contract this year, and he hasn’t been as good as he needs to be. While he has three touchdowns, he has just 14 catches for 126 yards through three games. Over the past two seasons, the Packers have lost Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley. Because those players haven’t really been adequately replaced (Finley could be supremely frustrating, but his size and speed created matchup nightmares), Cobb needs to up his production.
There’s been a drop or two:
Thems would have been a tremendous one-handed grab, and emt’s not necessaremly a play someone typemng on a sofa has a remght to say that Cobb should make, but emt’s one of a seremes of themngs that needs to happen for a team to have any chance at wemnnemng emn Seattle:
It would be nice if there were a margin of error such that these types of plays wouldn’t be essential, but a lot is demanded of Jordy Nelson (who continues to make some catches like that) and Randall Cobb on this year’s team. Jarrett Boykin and Davante Adams also need to pick up some of the slack.
PLAYCALLING HAS SEEMED VANILLA
Mike McCarthy said earlier this week that the Packers’ offensive struggles have been more about execution than scheme, but it’s clearly been some undefinable combination of the two. For years, Packers blogger Aaron Nagler has been hollering for McCarthy to draw up more slants and screen passes to counteract stout opposing defensive lines, but those plays have been exceedingly rare.
Admittedly, it’s a stereotypical thing for football fans to sit at home and bemoan play-calling, and that it will be a natural byproduct of offensive stagnancy. But, you look around and see Percy Harvin, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Mohamed Sanu making plays happen out of unconventional design, and you wonder why Randall Cobb’s not doing more of that.
DEFENSE STILL TOO RELIANT ON CLAY MATTHEWS
While it wasn’t wonderful in Seattle, the defense has been about as good as you could reasonably expect. If there’s been a surprise bright spot this season, it’s been the production of Julius Peppers. It’s one thing to be excited for a free agent signing and hear positive pieces coming out of training camp — how’s that working out for Toby Gerhart? — and it’s another to see the 34-year-old getting after the quarterback.
The luxury of seeming to finally have another pass rusher notwithstanding, there’s the lingering sense that everything will turn to shit when Clay Matthews gets injured. After he went out with a groin injury in the fourth quarter this past Sunday, the Lions ran roughshod, killing the final seven minutes off the clock with a nine-play drive and three kneeldowns.
Matthews’ unfortunate lack of durability is not something that’s his fault, but it’s a reality that the Packers have been ill-equipped to cope with for years now. You can’t wave a magic wand and replace Matthews with another linebacker of his caliber when he goes down, but it’s been an issue for a long enough period with Ted Thompson picking players and Dom Capers coaching them that the defense shouldn’t be so dependent on an unstable foundation.
LAMBEAU CROWD’S GOTTEN COMPLACENT
This really has nothing to do with the team’s struggles this year — they won their one game at home, after all — but I’m already here airing my grievances. I’ve been to a game in New Orleans, and the way that Seattle’s crowd impacts games transcends through the screen. Lambeau Field used to have an atmosphere like that, but it doesn’t anymore.
People will tell you to sit down if you get up and yell on third down defense, and the crowd generally does not rise up and wreak havoc for opposing teams, even in massive spots. In last season’s playoff ouster, Colin Kaepernick picked up three third downs on a 14-play drive that set the 49ers up for a time-expiring field goal. Having been in attendance, the crowd didn’t do all it could.
The Packers fan base is, collectively, very demanding. As is evidenced by Aaron Rodgers exasperatedly telling us to R-E-L-A-X, the Packers can hear us. For the last several seasons, the Lambeau faithful hasn’t held up its end of the bargain. If we’re gonna dish it out ………
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
The good news in all this is that it seems like Aaron Rodgers is sufficiently pissed off. I like him when he’s angry. The season is far from over, but it’s time for some urgency. A loss Sunday in Chicago would put Green Bay at 1-3, with two losses in the division and three in the conference. I’m cautiously optimistic, but the Bears will undoubtedly be out for revenge after what happened the last time the Packers marched into Soldier.
Under Mike McCarthy, the Packers have had a knack for coming out and banging heads in these games after everybody’s been wondering what’s wrong with them. It might be irrational fandom, but I think that’s what will happen this Sunday.