AFC Playoff Breakdown: Bills Eliminated, Chargers in Charge, Texans and Chiefs Holding Slim Hopes
By Jason Lisk
The AFC is done in week 16 with the exception of the Monday Night game between Cincinnati and Denver. After today’s results, which included losses by Buffalo, Kansas City and Baltimore, the Bengals are in very good shape to get a spot. Buffalo was eliminated by the loss to Oakland, while Cleveland and Miami were both eliminated by other results, and Pittsburgh clinched a spot with a win over Kansas City.
Here’s where we stand heading into the Monday Night Game. New England, Denver, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh are in. The first three have all clinched division titles and home games. Pittsburgh (regardless of Monday Night’s game) needs to beat Cincinnati to win the North (the result could dictate who wins the division in the event of a tie).
As it pertains to the division winners, New England clinches the #1 seed with a win over Buffalo, or a Denver loss. Denver will clinch a first round bye with a win OR a Cincinnati loss (both could of course happen Monday Night). Pittsburgh would win the AFC North AND get the #3 seed with a win next week. The Colts get the #3 seed only if they win, Cincinnati loses tomorrow, then beats Pittsburgh.
Now, to the uncertainties and teams yet to clinch.
Cincinnati is in the playoffs with a win in either of the next two games. They can also get in with a loss by either San Diego or Baltimore. In the event of another Cincinnati tie (or a tie by either of those teams) then Cincinnati would have the tiebreaker over Baltimore but not San Diego. [Estimated chances of playoffs: 90%]
San Diego is in the playoffs with a win at Kansas City because they hold the head to head tiebreaker over Baltimore. They are out with a loss (because they would be stuck behind KC). A tie would also put them in if Cincinnati lost both or Baltimore loses to Cleveland. [Estimated chances of playoffs: 48%]
Baltimore is in the playoffs with a win over Cleveland plus either two losses from Cincinnati, or a San Diego loss. [Estimated chances of playoffs: 41%]
Houston holds all tiebreakers over teams that could finish at 9-7 with them based on either head to head or conference record. Therefore, Houston gets in by beating Jacksonville AND having San Diego and Baltimore lose [Estimated chances of playoffs: 16%]
Kansas City needs everything to go their way. Beat San Diego, then have Baltimore and Houston both lose. [Estimated chances of playoffs: 5%]
NOTE: the ESPN Playoff Machine had some of the scenarios wrong, but appears to have corrected the tiebreakers in the last hour, confirming what others had that Pittsburgh was in.
[photo via USA Today Sports Images]