Bracketology, March 10: Auburn Sinks, West Virginia Surges, Another Bubble Bursts

Here are the projections as we head into Championship Saturday. Most of the remaining movement should occur today, as all but 10 teams will finish. The #1 Seeds still aren’t set in stone. North Carolina made their case yesterday with a win over Duke, but must beat Virginia to be in contention. Xavier’s loss means they could be at some outside risk, as their best win, other than Cincinnati, is either at Butler or Seton Hall. Kansas likewise needs to win the Big 12 against West Virginia to secure it.

The largest movement up top so far was Auburn getting crushed by Alabama, I have them sliding all the way to the lower end of the 4 seeds, and likely means they get to travel out West for the first week to either the Boise or San Diego sites. West Virginia, who I had as 17th overall entering the week, now moves to the final 3 seed, and either them or Wichita State can get that spot depending on what happens.

At the bubble (and yes, I’m going to fret about this too much), I think the Nevada loss to San Diego State means that one of the mid-majors (St. Mary’s and Middle Tennessee) slides out. I had the Blue Raiders in that last spot, so for now I’m removing them. But it would not surprise me if they reward the OOC scheduling where Middle Tennessee played 3 SEC teams (including Auburn) and played USC and Miami in close games on a neutral site. St. Mary’s has the better metrics, and the road win at Gonzaga, by far the best of the two.

Louisville now slides to my last in spot, and the Atlantic-10 is the lone remaining danger. St. Joseph’s and Davidson play Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure, respectively, and if either of them win they would bump another out.

And here are my projections for regional placement and first round sites.