Can Portugal Draw Its Way To Glory At Euro 2016?

Portugal edged Poland on penalties. They are through to the Euro 2016 semifinals, without winning a match in regulation. Portugal drew its three group matches with Iceland, Austria, and Hungary. They beat Croatia in extra time in the Round of 16.

This “achievement” is rare. You need a team, such as Portugal, that is resolute, well organized defensively, and inept at converting goal scoring chances. That combination does not come around often.

You almost need the wonky 24-team format where some third place teams advance. It’s hard to get a team into second place on three points, extra hard in the “three points per win” era.

The best parallels come from the 1990 World Cup. It had the 24 team format. It was incredibly boring. Group F was case in point. England, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Egypt played six matches and scored seven combined goals. England’s 1-0 win over Egypt was the one match that was not a draw. Both Ireland and the Netherlands went to the knockout round with three draws.

Ireland reached the quarterfinals without a 90-minute win, beating Romania on penalties in the Round of 16. The Irish lost 1-0 to Italy in the quarterfinals. England nearly reached the final with that one regulation Egypt win. In the knockout stage, they beat Belgium in extra time, beat Cameroon in extra time, then lost to the Germans on penalties.

Argentina in 1990 came close to a knockout draw triumph. They beat Brazil 1-0 in the Round of 16 on an 80th minute goal, beat Yugoslavia on penalties, beat Italy on penalties, lost to Germany 1-0 on an 85th minute penalty in the final.

Uruguay and Bulgaria reached the Round of 16 with two draws and a loss in 1986. Both were eliminated in the Round of 16. Chile went through with three draws in 1998. They lost 4-1 to Brazil n the Round of 16.

France had six knockout matches come down to penalties or extra time from 1996 to 2000. Les Bleus won five of them, and lifted the trophy in 1998 and 2000.

Portugal did have an ugly knockout run at the 2006 World Cup. They scored one goal in a 1-0 Round of 16 win over the Netherlands, in a match that had 16 yellow cards and four players sent off. They never conceded a goal from open play. They drew England 0-0 and beat them on penalties. France beat them 1-0 in the semifinal on a penalty.

Can Portugal draw its way to the Euro 2016 title? Portugal would need to do it twice more. Could they gut out another win after a regulation draw against either Wales or Belgium? Yes.

That gets Portugal to the final. Finals have been cagey of late. There have been six European or World Cup finals since 2004. Five have had one or fewer open play goals scored in the regulation 90 minutes. Three went to extra time. The last two Copa Americas finished 0-0 and went to penalties.

But, even the right team in the right tournament format should stumble backwards into a win or loss in regulation as the minutes and matches add up. Extra-time matches in succession will wear on teams, especially older ones. Seven of the 13 outfield players for Portugal against Poland were 29 or older, including three of the four defenders.

Winning in that fashion relies too much on good fortune. There isn’t a skill to finding a late, exhausted extra goal or to winning on penalties. That’s why past teams that have walked that tightrope have fallen.