Champions League Final Preview: Manchester United vs. Barcelona
By Ty Duffy
The historical ramifications are palpable. Simmons and Klosterman would need a two-part podcast to dissect it, if either cared about soccer. A Man U win would force us to acknowledge two great teams from this era. A Barcelona win would ensure their status as the best team of this and, perhaps, any era. The recent head to head record in the tournament is essentially even. Barcelona beat United 2-0 in the 2009 Final at the Stadio Olimpico, though Man U beat them 1-0 on aggregate the year before in the semifinals, en route to their triumph over Chelsea.
Time, The Devourer of all Things: Barcelona won in Rome, but the teams were evenly balanced. United just made a couple critical mistakes. Fortunes have changed in the interim. The stage is the same, but there’s now a definite disparity between the two squads. Barcelona have progressed and peaked. Man United have been scrapping and staving off decline.
Barcelona replaced Eto’o and Henry with Pedro and David Villa. The latter don’t quite equal the former in talent (though they are still among the world’s best), but they press, they run and they conform their games far more fluidly into the team dynamic. Sergio Busquets, a 2009 neophyte, has seamless integrated with Xavi and Iniesta and won a World Cup. Dani Alves, suspended for the final two years ago, will play in this match.
United sold Cristiano Ronaldo and declined to sign Carlos Tevez to a permanent deal. Ferdinand, Giggs and Scholes are two years older. Chicharito has been a great addition. They are a solid team, but they are no longer as domineering. They won the EPL this year, but modestly. They were the most consistent among a flawed group of teams.
Ashes to Ashes: Last year the resulting ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano grounded European flights. It forced Barcelona to drive rather than fly to Milan. Exhausted, they lost 3-1 to Inter on the away leg. Had they been able to stick to their normal routine, Catalans believe they’d be playing for a third-consecutive Champions League. Facing a similar threat last week, Barcelona flew to London two days early. They don’t have to drive to London, but, they have also been cooped up in a hotel for days, practicing in strange environments, with nothing to think about but the match.
The Conundrum: Pep Guardiola pulled out a rabbit in 2009. He shifted Leo Messi to the middle and completely flummoxed United’s back four. That’s now Messi’s customary position. The element of surprise has passed. Man U know where he will be playing and know where he’s likely to move. That doesn’t mean they can stop him.
Messi isn’t an orthodox center forward. He doesn’t hold the line. He floats behind the auxiliary forwards. Man U has two options in a 4-4-2. Either Ferdinand or Vidic can follow him forward, but that opens space for Pedro and Villa’s diagonal runs. The pair could sit back, allowing Carrick to pick Messi up, but Carrick is already struggling to handle Iniesta. Even with one responsibility, he’s not equipped to mark either player.
United could try Mourinho’s strategy and play three central midfielders, presumably Giggs, Carrick and Fletcher/Anderson. This worked well for Real, before Pepe was sent off. The trouble is United don’t have a Pepe-like animal to unleash into Barca’s midfield. Such a defensive alignment would still be overmatched and it would come at the expensive of starting Chicharito, consequently making Rooney less effective.
Line of Scrimmage: Man U and Barca neutralize each other except for one place, central midfield. That’s like saying two football teams are equal, except for one team being dominant on both lines. Barcelona’s trio of Xavi, Iniesta and Busquets is the world’s best. Man U’s is a weak point. They don’t have a stopper, a driving force or a top flight distributor. They have skated by this season against lackluster Premier League competition and a benign Champions League run in, but Barcelona can expose them.
Barcelona will have a clear 3 on 2 numerical advantage. They are also faster and have far more skill. They should smother the ball. If Xavi and Iniesta receive it in advantageous positions, there’s not much Man U can do, besides pray. They need to stop the ball getting there. Expect United to try a “full court press” in stretches with Rooney and Chicharito pressuring Busquets and Pique. Barca can handle that, but it will slow down the metronome and keep the Catalans in a more manageable “half-court” game.
Squads [Update]: Man United: Van der Sar, Fabio, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Valencia, Carrick, Giggs, Park, Rooney, Hernandez. [4-4-1-1] Barcelona: Valdes, Alves, Mascherano, Pique, Abidal, Xavi, Busquets, Iniesta, Pedro, Messi, Villa [4-3-3]. The biggest surprises are Puyol not being in the Starting XI for Barcelona and former $50 million signing and Premier League co top-scorer Dimitar Berbatov not even being on the bench.
Prediction: Barcelona have a clear advantage in central midfield. They will dominate possession. They present tactical issues opponents have yet to solve. They field a core of experienced players, that have won the World Cup, the European Championship and the Champions League since the summer of 2008. Sir Alex Ferguson is a great manager. His team will be prepared and capable of capitalizing on any opportunities they receive. Those shouldn’t be many. A Man U win would not shock me, but I see no credible reason to predict it. 2-1 Barcelona.
[Photo via Getty]