Chuck Pagano, Jim Caldwell, Ken Whisenhunt: Which NFL Coach Gets Fired Next?

The NFL’s wheat is getting separated from the chaff. Teams with high expectations have faltered, others have surprised, and some with long-standing droughts still appear to be rebuilding. How long will those coaches get? We’ve already seen one coach get fired this year when high expectations combined with a rough start. Here’s an assessment of the relative job safety of all the 32 current head coaches in the NFL.

THESE GUYS HAVE IMPECCABLE JOB SECURITY

#32 Bill Belichick
#31 Pete Carroll
#30 Mike McCarthy
#29 Bruce Arians
#28 Todd Bowles
#27 Dan Quinn
#26 Ron Rivera

Belichick gets to walk away at his discretion this time around in New England. Carroll has plenty of equity built up to withstand whatever happens, as does McCarthy. Arians has completely turned around Arizona’s culture and will have a long leash. Bowles and Quinn are both rookie coaches who have turned teams around and have their squads in playoff contention. Rivera was thought to be on the hot seat two years ago, and has turned it around with two playoff appearances and a 6-0 start this year.

THESE GUYS ARE SAFE (UNLESS THINGS REALLY GO OFF THE RAILS THE REST OF THE YEAR)

#25 Mike Tomlin
#24 Marvin Lewis
#23 John Harbaugh
#22 Jason Garrett
#21 Gary Kubiak
#20 Chip Kelly
#19 Mike Zimmer
#18 Jack Del Rio
#17 John Fox

These coaches should all be back next year. That is, unless truly unforeseen circumstances occur. Still, the remote possibility of those occurring keep them from getting in the earlier group.

Tomlin, Lewis, and Harbaugh have all represented the AFC North in the playoffs as recently as last year. The Ravens are off to a rough start at 1-5, but it would take a truly disastrous second half to have Harbaugh even sniffing trouble. Lewis is only listed here because he has been in Cincinnati forever, without a playoff win. The Bengals are undefeated, so if something like them collapsing to miss the postseason happened, yeah, I could see it being his last year. I don’t see this team doing that, though. Tomlin doesn’t have a playoff win since 2010. Big Ben has missed 4 games, and so he probably has an excuse if it doesn’t happen again this year, as long as they contend.

Garrett, meanwhile, also has some leeway after being the hot seat candidate entering last year, and the Romo injury justifies any slip in record this season. Kelly, despite all the talk, can decide his own fate after this season, and Zimmer has a second year squad that looks like it will be in contention for a playoff spot.

Kubiak, Del Rio, and Fox are first year coaches who should have some leash. If Denver somehow misses the playoffs after a 6-0 start AND the offense continues to decline, maybe Kubiak isn’t completely safe, but the other two probably have plenty of leash as long as things don’t look horrible by season’s end.

SOME SCENARIOS WOULD LEAVE THESE GUYS IN TROUBLE

#16 Tom Coughlin
#15 Andy Reid
#14 Dan Campbell
#13 Rex Ryan
#12 Jim Tomsula
#11 Mike McCoy

Coughlin has plenty of built up goodwill thanks to two Super Bowl titles. Still, the Giants haven’t played in a postseason game since that last Super Bowl win following the 2011 season. Ownership gave him a short one-year extension so he wasn’t a lame duck, but if the Giants (who currently lead at 4-3) aren’t in the postseason again you might see a change.

Andy Reid is most likely okay based on two winning seasons in KC, but a disastrous second half (which isn’t out of the question as the offense is without Charles) could lead to a change. McCoy is in a similar boat, but also is working for a franchise that could be looking for a fresh start in a new location next year. A bad second half could leave him vulnerable.

Campbell is an interim coach so his position is not safe. However, if the Dolphins were to surge to a playoff spot, it would be hard to let him go. The other two are first-year coaches, but the most vulnerable for different reasons. It would take a lot for Jed York to can Tomsula after one year, given the backstory with Harbaugh, but then again, San Francisco has looked like an expansion team in a few contests already. Rex is just a lightning rod, and if the Bills implode, he’s not guaranteed to stay.

#10 Sean Payton
#9 Jeff Fisher
#8 Mike Pettine
#7 Lovie Smith

Sean Payton has been in New Orleans for a decade. Unless they surge to a postseason appearance this year, it will be 3 missed in the last 4 years. Drew Brees is getting up there, and will have a $30 million cap charge in 2016. Other teams are reportedly interested in inquiring about Payton.

Fisher has coached 19 full years in the NFL, with 6 playoff appearances. This is year 4 in St. Louis, and if the Rams (currently 3-3) don’t make the postseason, then Fisher could be in trouble–though his history suggests he’ll get a long leash.

Pettine is part of the Cleveland carousel. The Browns don’t have to make the playoffs, but they do probably have to be trending up by season’s end. So far they’ve looked competent in 2015 but it must continue.

Lovie got the first overall pick in his first year in Tampa. The team just blew a large lead at Washington to fall to 2-4. If they aren’t showing some improvement by year’s end, he’s in trouble.

THESE GUYS NEED RESULTS, AND THEY NEED THEM NOW

#6 Gus Bradley
#5 Jay Gruden
#4 Jim Caldwell
#3 Bill O’Brien
#2 Ken Whisenhunt
#1 Chuck Pagano

It’s absolutely plausible that the entire AFC South has new coaches in 2016, if the Colts win the division in unimpressive fashion over the other three. O’Brien’s Texans have been flat out embarrassed on multiple occasions and that must stop. Whisenhunt is 4-29 in his last 33 games as head coach at Arizona and now Tennessee, and are 1-5 to start the year. Bradley is now 9-30 after the win in London over the Bills.

Ownership says that, but one wonders where that bar is set. Here is a list of the coaches to return for the start of a fourth year after winning one-third or fewer of their games in the first three seasons. Bradley will firmly be on this list if he is retained, unless the Jaguars finish 8-1.

You could point to patience paying off in the case of Hall of Famers Landry and Noll, and John McKay in Tampa Bay. McKay and Landry both took over actual expansion teams (along with Capers, Fears, Wilson, and Van Brocklin on this list). McKay was also the last one to reach a playoff game and survive to the end of a fifth year.

Caldwell could hold a unique distinction: he could be fired by two organizations in the only two seasons where he failed to make the postseason. When things go badly with Caldwell in charge, they go really badly.

Jay Gruden is just part of the revolving door in Washington under Daniel Snyder. Yes, they won yesterday by a point over Tampa at home after trailing big. If Gruden is going to get a third year, there better be more offensive performances like that over the second half of the season.

Meanwhile, Chuck Pagano didn’t get a contract extension, his team was heaped with Super Bowl expectations after last year’s AFC Championship Game appearance, and they have looked like anything but a playoff team. Well, except that they play in the AFC South.