Cleveland Browns 2012 NFL Preview: Passing Offense, and not Rush Defense, has Defined Recent Browns Era

The Cleveland Plain-Dealer has discovered the major problem with the Browns. Run defense. That’s right, since 1999, the Browns have been the worst team against the run, 13 yards worse per game than the Raiders.

Except it isn’t. Don’t get me wrong. The Browns have been bad at everything since 1999. When we strip away volume stats, like rushing yards, and look at per play efficiency stats, we see a different picture. Here is the average finish for the Browns in net yards per pass and yards per carry on both offense and defense since 1999.

Pass Defense: 17.1
Rush Offense: 22.7
Rush Defense: 23.4
Pass Offense: 24.6

When we look at quantity, as in the relative league rank in number of attempts in each category, well, that’s when the large discrepancy emerges.

Pass Defense: 10.4
Pass Offense: 22.1
Rush Offense: 22.9
Rush Defense: 28.5

Cleveland has finished in the bottom four in rush attempts allowed in all but three seasons since the franchise returned in 1999. You might be tempted to say “well, teams wouldn’t run on them if they were really good at rush defense.” That’s true to some extent. However, the bigger factor is the bad offense. There is a much higher correlation between Cleveland’s rush attempts allowed ranking and passing yards per play ranking over the last thirteen years (+0.50), than between yards per carry rank in a given season and total rushes (in fact, it was slightly negative).

You know the Dean Wormer line “fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.” Well, bad quarterbacks, poor running, and weak rush defense is no way to win in the NFL. Just ask Cleveland fans.

The biggest problem, though, is the passing. If teams were afraid that Cleveland was more likely to score with a forward pass rather than by getting an interception return, they wouldn’t run the ball as much. Cleveland’s offenses over the last decade have basically incentivized teams to take no risks against Cleveland. Why bother?

The rush defense will be without Phil Taylor still for the start of the season, as the snake bit franchise is still waiting for him to get healthy. Chris Gocong is out. If the Plain Dealer really wanted to assess the best chance for improved rush defense by their flawed measure, though, it rests on the other side of the ball.

The hope for change this year rest on yet another new quarterback, rookie Brandon Weeden, who will have the most dynamic runner that the Browns 2.0 have had in their (new) history in Trent Richardson. Joe Thomas has been toiling away in relative silence in Cleveland, his talents wasted by ineptness around him. If Cleveland can find receivers in Greg Little and rookie Josh Gordon, and Weeden plays like his age rather than his experience level, that will be the best cure for teams constantly running the ball against the Browns.

With a new owner coming in and likely changes in the front office, it may be a case of Weeden getting it done right away, or the Browns looking for another offensive savior to improve those rushing defense numbers in short order.

[photo via US Presswire]