College Football Playoff: Ohio State Needs Decisive Wins To Overcome Weak Schedule, Virginia Tech Loss
By Ty Duffy
Miami clobbered Virginia Tech 30-6 in Blacksburg Thursday night. That drops the Hokies to 3-4 vs. FBS teams on the season. Ohio State’s two-touchdown loss at home to them looks worse with each passing week. Tech’s continued slide could be devastating to the Buckeyes’ chances of reaching the playoff, despite their dominance of late.
Here is a reasonable scenario if Ohio State wins out. Florida State wins out to get to 13-0 and is a lock for the playoff. Alabama wins out and wins the SEC claiming a second place. That leaves two places for a one-loss Ohio State (B1G Champ), one-loss TCU (B12 Champ), one-loss Oregon (P12 Champ), one-loss Notre Dame (Independent) and one-loss Mississippi State (SEC Runner-Up).
Ohio State has an easy schedule. They played no one non-conference. Their B1G schedule draw missed Wisconsin, Nebraska and Iowa. Michigan went into the toilet. The Buckeyes, winning out and thus eliminating Michigan State from contention, would still have the weakest quality wins compared to teams from the other power conferences. Here’s a look how the teams would stack out for wins against the current SRS Top 40.
That’s also a best-case scenario for Ohio State. Minnesota could fall out of the Top 40. The winner of the B1G West could be a complete non-entity. Losing heavily to Virginia Tech, the Buckeyes also have the worst loss of those five teams.
Notre Dame: L 31-27 at Florida State
Mississippi State: L – at Alabama in this hypothetical
TCU: L 61-58 at Baylor
Oregon: L 31-24 vs. Arizona
Ohio State: L – 35-21 vs. Virginia Tech
Essentially, Ohio State will lose any arguments about resumé. The Buckeyes need a bunch of losses in front of them, or they need to close so decisively they have to be considered one of the four best teams.
Dropping 50 on Michigan or Indiana won’t impress anyone. Ohio State likely needs to beat Michigan State on the road and the B1G West champ by double-digits to even have a chance. A 24-20 win in East Lansing will get the Buckeyes into the discussion. It won’t win them the argument.
[USA Today Sports]