Could Aaron Judge Hit Over 60 Home Runs?

Aaron Judge has blasted 22 home runs in the New York Yankees' first 56 games as everything is coming up pinstripes. Our finest mathematicians say this puts him on pace to reach 63 on the year, which would be a monumental accomplishment for a few reasons. First, Major Leaguer has amassed 60 in a single season since 2001. Second, there are a lot of WFAN listeners who still consider Roger Maris' 61 longballs to be the standard because everyone who has surpassed that has lingering PED doubts. Third, it's very cool when extremely large dudes hit dingers at a prodigious pace.

Just how possible is that? Well, not to be a fly in the ointment, but the simple answer is not that possible. Judge to this point has hit a home run in 9.1 percent of his plate appearances. His previous high came in 2020 at 7.9 percent in non-indicative 28-game season. Outside of that his best is 6.2 from last year — a campaign that stalled out short of 40 big flies. Can he really keep up this lightning in a bottle? We remain cautiously optimistic yet realistic.

Because Judge winning an MVP would help a certain blogger out of a jam. And he's very much on pace to do just that. Currently, the slugger leads all of baseball in slugging, OPS, OPS+, total baseball, runs and homers. He's the odds-on favorite to win the honor. If he can stay healthy. Which is the biggest question mark of all. He's played two full seasons and seen the others cut short to to maladies. His height and swing make him prone to dings and lumbar issues. So there's cause for concern on mighty hacks.

Despite competing with every legend, Judge is hitting homers at the third-quickest rate in franchise history. He's looking every bit as advertised and his scariness is only driven home by his health. When the two are working together, forget about it.

Sixty homers and Roger Maris' record are probably long shots. But you'd be crazy to bet against this guy.