Ducks Go Down to Arizona, Commence Playoff Scenario Madness
By Jason McIntyre
Arizona stunned Oregon for the second year in a row, but this time the Ducks lost at home to rebounding Rich Rodriguez, 31-24. Marcus Mariota, the Heisman front-runner and clubhouse leader to be the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft, looked ordinary a week after getting beat up by Washington State, rushing nine times for one yard and fumbling twice, including one that locked up the game in the final two minutes (see below).
Thing is, the loss isn’t that damaging for the Pac-12’s shot at getting into the 4-team playoff. USC already lost to Boston College, and now Oregon has gone down, but it’s still the 2nd best conference in the country after the SEC because of incredible depth: Arizona (5-0) and UCLA (4-0) remain unbeaten, and Stanford is 3-1 with a loss to the Trojans. The Big 12, led by unbeaten Baylor and Oklahoma, is 3rd.
Somebody from the Pac-12 – perhaps even a team with two losses – is going to have to sweat out getting into the playoff. Oregon/Stanford vs. Arizona/USC/UCLA will almost certainly be the Pac 12 title game, with the winner hoping that Baylor or Oklahoma haven’t done enough, or Florida State has lost.
The biggest loser after the Arizona win is the Big Ten, and specifically, Michigan State. The best team (by far) in the Big Ten lost in Autzen by 19 in September (though it felt closer than that) but has won its two games since by a combined 101 points. The Spartans will be tested Saturday at home against Nebraska, but even with a victory, the only opportunity for a quality win is … 1-loss Ohio State?
Yes, the SEC teams will beat each other up every week (starting Saturday), but good luck finding a committee member today who doesn’t have two SEC teams in the playoff: October 3rd:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State (unimpressive, but did beat Clemson)
3. Oklahoma (wins over Tennessee, West Virginia are better than Baylor’s)
4. Texas A&M (two quality wins)
5. Auburn
6. Baylor
If I’m projecting the rest of the season, and this one will change weekly, here’s what I’ve got:
1. Florida State (should go unbeaten with easy schedule)
2. Baylor (think/hope it wins at Oklahoma)
3. Alabama
4. UCLA (P-12 winner)
5. Notre Dame (one loss a narrow one to … FSU?)
6. Auburn (oh that damn schedule!)
7. Michigan State (only one loss, but Notre Dame and Auburn played a tougher schedule)