Euro 2016 Knockout Rounds Preview: France vs. Croatia In The Final?
By Ty Duffy
Euro 2016, after a two-day hiatus and a political sea change, begins its knockout stages on Saturday. Here is a rough breakdown of the field.
Bracket Disparity
Multiple favorites disappointed in the group stage. This resulted in lopsided brackets. France, Germany, Spain, England, and Italy ended up on the same side of the bracket. That’s five of the top six favorites to win Euro 2016. Those countries have 11 World Cup wins and nine European Championships between them. The eight teams on the other side of the bracket have zero tournament wins.
Who Does The Bracket Hurt?
Italy won Group E. The reward for that triumph is a potential route of Spain, Germany, France just to reach the Euro 2016 Final.
Spain’s loss to Croatia was a killer. Instead of being the odds-on favorite to reach the final from the weak bracket, they must also beat Germany and France after dispatching Italy to get to the final.
Germany did not want to face either Spain or Italy in a quarterfinal. The Germans’ four previous tournament exits before the 2014 World Cup win came against those two teams. Italy beat Germany at the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2012. Spain beat Germany at Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup.
Who Does The Bracket Help?
France having Germany lined up in the semifinal was a given. The run there is rather benign. They play Ireland in the Round of 16. Their semifinal opponent would be either Iceland or England. That’s potentially two more tune up matches to find the right formula up front. Whoever the semifinal is would come off at least one tough match (possibly two),
Belgium finished second. That will work out swell for them. Their toughest route to the semifinal would be Hungary and Wales, where they would face whoever emerges from Switzerland/Poland/Croatia/Portugal. A Final run could prove a redemption for War Pig Marc Wilmots.
Who Is In The Best Form?
That’s a tough question. No team emerged from group play unscathed. Germany managed just three goals in group play. France struggled to break down Romania, Albania, and Switzerland. One would have said Spain, until they lost to Croatia. One could say Croatia, but they blew a late, two-goal lead to a brutal Czech Republic. Poland only scored twice in group play. Unclear.
In theory, play may open up more in these rounds. So, teams such as Germany, France, and England which have been controlling play but struggling to score may find an easier time against better opponents. That’s still a theory.
Who Will Reach The Final?
France remains a slight favorite. Les Bleus have the home-field advantage. They don’t have to play Italy or Spain in a quarterfinal. They have a lot of untapped potential going forward.
Though, Germany could present France with a lot of problems. The Germans have not been firing up front. But their midfield, particularly Toni Kroos, has dominated play. France has talent in midfield. Germany has talent and a lot more experience. We still have not seen France’s underwhelming back four challenged.
From the challenger’s bracket, Belgium and Croatia look like the most likely bets. Those are the two most complete teams in all three phases, without overwhelming weaknesses. Belgium has more talent. Croatia has more spirit and cohesion.
Poland needs to get Lewandowski going to have a shot. Wales and Hungary are nice stories, but may get caught out against better opposition. Portugal could right the ship. But, they have given no reason to expect them to.
At this point, we’ll stick with France vs. Croatia in the final.