Inside Blitz: Want an 8-Team Playoff? Root for TCU, and For Notre Dame and Alabama to Just Miss
By Jason McIntyre
The idea for a sports/media/gambling column was hatched this summer and you can look for it every Wednesday. If you want to yell at me about something that appeared here – because let’s face it, on the Internet, it’s outrage or nothing: Jmcintyre at thebiglead dot com.
In a mild twist, there wasn’t too much Internet Outrage over the College Football Playoff rankings release Tuesday. In fact, one could argue that they under-delivered, despite immense hype leading up to the reveal. The internet thrives on controversy, and oddly, there wasn’t much Tuesday night.
There were mild arguments from the Alabama and Notre Dame fanbases, which were ranked 6th and 10th, respectively. Both are likely to rise this weekend: Irish fans are now Stanford fans, because that’s Notre Dame’s best victory. Can Stanford beat Oregon? And then there’s the pivotal Auburn/Ole Miss game. Alabama fans will be rooting for the Rebels, who beat the Tide a few weeks ago.
But I started thinking about scenarios over the weekend and it hit me: I’m going to be rooting for Notre Dame and Alabama to finish 5th and 6th, and miss the college football playoff.
You should, too.
Why?
Because I want an 8-team playoff. College football needs an 8-team playoff.
Yes, the first playoff games haven’t even happened and I’m lobbying for eight games. The best way to achieve that is to leave out the team that has been the most dominant in college football over the last five years (Alabama) and the one that is the biggest TV draw (Notre Dame).
I don’t want to scare anyone, but can you imagine the outrage if TCU, with must-see QB Trevone Boykin, beats WVU and Kansas State and gets the 4th spot? Close loss to Baylor, nice win over Oklahoma, rout of Oklahoma State … hey, it’s not an impressive resume, and the out-of-conference win over Minnesota will take a hit when the Gophers lose to OSU and Nebraska. But it will become increasingly difficult to drop TCU after victories, especially when everyone else is playing a more challenging schedule, and occasionally losing.
Could the committee with a straight face put 1-loss TCU in ahead of 2-loss Notre Dame (still need to play Arizona State and USC) and 2-loss Alabama, which may not even win the SEC West?
You’re talking about a nightmare scenario for the committee: FSU (weak schedule), TCU (Big 12), SEC champ (let’s guess Auburn here, but it could be Mississippi State) and Oregon are in, while the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame and Michigan State, all with two losses, playing in meaningless, non-playoff bowls?
And let me slap down two counter arguments: But even at 8-teams, somebody is going to be left out! It’s much different to decide between a handful of deserving 2/3 loss teams for the 7th/8th spot than 3-4 marquee teams with two losses for the 4th spot.
An 8-team playoff will devalue the regular season!
Uh, have you seen what a 4-team playoff has done to this season? An 8-team playoff keeps 20 teams in the mix until early November. That’s a very, very good thing.
Be like me: Root for chaos, and big names to be omitted.
Let’s get that 8-team playoff by 2018.
*
GUESS THE GAME 7 RATINGS OF THE WORLD SERIES
Fox and MLB got lucky: After the worst rating ever for Game One of the World Series, the plucky Royals scratched and clawed and now are hosting Game 7 tonight against the Giants.
There’s nothing else on (well, the Bulls and Knicks on ESPN, but neither of those markets are connected to the World Series anyway), so expect a massive TV ratings number. Some quick history:
Game 7, 2011, Cardinals/Rangers: 14.7 rating, 25.4 million viewers
Game 7, 2002, Angels/Giants: 17.9 rating, 30.8 million viewers
Game 7, 2001, Diamondbacks/Yankees, 23.5 rating, 39.1 million viewers
Game 7, 1997, Marlins/Indians, 24.5 rating, 37.9 million viewers
The difference between 1997 and 2011 is over 12 million viewers, but you’ve also got to take into account the markets, what else was on TV that night, etc.
In a week when MLB writers were tripping over themselves to write about whether or not MLB “isn’t what it used to be” or “alive and well” for a night all these discussions are shelved to enjoy the culmination of the season.
Put me down for a 15.5 rating, 26.6 million viewers.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Oof. Talk about an ugly week: Alabama just missed the cover, Washington State fell behind 31-0 and never threatened, and Ole Miss lost a late lead and then the Rebels never had a chance to win/cover in OT because of a bad decision by Hugh Freeze and a worse one by Bo Wallace. Sigh. You take the 4-0 (a month ago) and you take the 0-3 and try to never get too high or too low.
Louisville +6.5 vs. Florida State. The line opened at 6.5, then swelled to 7, and in the last 72 hours has cratered to 3.5. Somebody know something? This can’t all be about Karlos Williams. Letdown after the Notre Dame win? I’d say yes, but it’s been almost two weeks. Strange things happen on Thursday in college football, and everyone outside of Tallahassee will be rooting for the Cardinals.
Navy +14 vs Notre Dame. Fortunately for the Irish, they had a bye week off the brutal FSU defeat – victory snatched from their hands! – but here’s the bad news: it’s a bad spot. Preparing for the triple option is one thing; it’s another to have 6-1 Arizona State looming next week in a game with massive Playoff ramifications. I think Notre Dame wins by single digits.
Baylor -36 vs Kansas. I believe it’s written in stone somewhere – take the dogs and the points, and whatever you do, never, ever take a team that needs to cover by more than five touchdowns. If Baylor wants to creep back into the playoff discussion, it needs to impress the committee – so start dropping 60 a game again, Art.
Auburn +2.5 vs. Mississippi: Was all-in on the Rebels until that LSU debacle. They were physically beat up, especially on that final drive. Going home will help, but Auburn is well-tested, runs the ball well (10th in the country), and how can you back Hugh Freeze after the LSU ending?
Georgia -10 vs. Florida. The Gators are abysmal offensively. Both teams are coming off a bye. The only surprise here is that the spread isn’t significantly larger. Georgia’s won the last three in the series, all by single digits. Which UF team shows up? The one that played Kentucky/Tennessee/LSU tough? Or the one that self destructed against Alabama and Missouri?
ODDS & ENDS
We chronicled layoffs at Time Warner last week, and here are some more, this time at HBO … Would you watch a TV show loosely based on the life of Baron Davis? It’s coming! … after 29 years of covering the Detroit Tigers – clearly, he’s familiar with that loaded 80’s RBI baseball Tigers – John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press is stepping away from journalism … wait, I thought lots of people thought, “We Need to Talk,” the CBS Sports Network talk show featuring only women was a bad idea? It says right here that it’s a great idea! … Ratings: Dallas/Washington on Monday Night Football two days ago was the most-watched MNF game in years, according to two categories (11.4 rating, best since 2009; 18.8 million, best since 2010).