NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Pay no attention to what anyone says, we are about to embark on the best weekend of football on the calendar. Four games between eight legitimately good teams will determine who plays on Championship Sunday. The lines are in and we're ready to get hurt again by making wildly irresponsible picks. Fade or follow. The choice is yours. Considering our track record this year, it's probably best to have a grain of salt handy.

JAGUARS (+8.5) over CHIEFS

Falling down 27-0 at home is a giant red flag but we have short memories because Trevor Lawrence authored a signature comeback. Competing in the turnover battle would make things easier. Doug Pederson's playoff record suggests he's capable of riding a hot hand and advancing further than anyone thought possible. Kansas City had an off-week which is nice but can invite rust. They've also shown a penchant for playing down to competition at home both during the regular season and in recent postseason history. We're banking on this one being a battle with Patrick Mahomes waking up in time to salvage things. Chiefs 28, Jaguars 22

GIANTS (+7.5) over EAGLES

Danny Dimes had his moment and Brian Daboll seems to understand exactly what his quarterback is and is not capable of doing. Winning on the road against Minnesota in the playoffs is extremely impressive no matter what anyone tries to sell you. Long-time appreciators of the underdog Giants are getting very strong Eli Manning era vibes from this squad. On the other side there is Jalen Hurts who is probably healthier than he's been in a long time and yet probably not completely healthy. It's a divisional matchup and things are going to get weird and feisty. Great news for anyone just wanting to see a good game. Eagles 27, Giants 24

BILLS (-5) over BENGALS

We will choose to believe that narrowly beating Skylar Thompson will serve as a wake-up call for Josh Allen. He'll hit the easy stuff instead of going for the home run swing every time. The truly dumb turnovers will disappear. The Josh Allen who went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes around this time last year will be the guy we see on Sunday. This is bad news for the Bengals, who have the firepower to keep up but are going to have a very hard time stopping Buffalo if they had a hard time stopping Tyler Huntley. A barnburner matchup that will hit the over in the first half and one that the Bills will emerge victorious from. Bills 38, Bengals 30

49ERS (-4) over COWBOYS

In pretty much all non-Brett Maher regards, the Cowboys played a perfect game against the Bucs. Anybody who has watched the Cowboys this year knows that means there will be some regression this week. The Niners' skill position players are going to take great advantage of Dallas' undisciplined defense. DeMeco Ryans is going to make life very difficult for Dak Prescott. If the turnover margin leans towards the Cowboys then they have a legit shot to win but all things equal San Francisco is perfectly constructed to beat this team and take care of business at home. 49ers 33, Cowboys 24