NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Don't look now but we have climbed out of the enormous hole created by a slow start and are now 65-66 overall after yet another 7-5 week. This gritty, gutty effort is why you never quit gambling when you're ahead — or behind. With a new lease on life, let's make our NFL Week 10 picks against the spread.

FALCONS (-2.5) over PANTHERS

The Bengals took godly mercy on the Panthers by only scoring 42 points and the franchise is no closer to having a long-term quarterback or coach. A short week means any and all weird things can and will happen but Marcus Mariota has shown time and time again that he's willing to do just enough to cover and cash bets. It's going to be a low-scoring, four-quarter game coming down to a field goal. Which makes this line extremely attractive. Falcons 24, Panthers 21

BUCCANEERS (-1) over SEAHAWKS

Do we think Tom Brady has much left in the tank? No. Do we think the Bucs will suddenly start looking like a team capable of winning playoff games? Also no. But when else are you going to get the opportunity to take the GOAT in Germany against Geno Smith in essentially a pick 'em? Never. Seattle is feeling like a team of destiny. If they can pull yet another stunner on the road, we'll all have to accept that they're going to be special. Taking a shot here to short their futures, even if it doesn't feel very fun. Buccaneers 23, Seahawks 19

VIKINGS (+7.5) over BILLS

You will find no outlet more optimistic about the Vikings than The Big Lead. They simply keep winning football games and inexplicably enter this marquee matchup with a better record than the supposedly unstoppable Bills. How long will it take until others realize that they are the most reliable team in football not named the Eagles? One more week. Vikings 30, Bills 24

LIONS (+2.5) over BEARS

Suddenly everyone loves Justin Fields and why wouldn't you? Suddenly Dan Campbell doesn't look like a complete disaster. The winner of this game puts themselves in position to finish second on the NFC North and with somewhat reasonable playoff hopes down the stretch. Something tells us that what we saw against Aaron Rodgers wasn't a blip. Will probably regret this but don't let the Lions get hot. Lions 26, Bears 24

BRONCOS (+3) over TITANS

Concerns about Ryan Tannehill's availability will continue. Russell Wilson has had a lot of time to think. Something about this line feels very, very suspicious. It should be twice as high. Feels like a trick. Won't be tricked. Broncos 19, Titans 14

CHIEFS (-9.5) over JAGUARS

The Chiefs have an annoying habit of playing down to competition. They can also destroy anyone on any given day. This has all the makings of a Get Right Game. Chiefs 39, Jaguars 16

DOLPHINS (-4) over BROWNS

The Dolphins got gashed by Justin Fields which doesn't bode well for their hopes defending Nick Chubb. But they still put up 35 points with relative ease. The Browns are coming off a bye and will be fresh but while Jacoby Brissett leads a feisty offense there aren't nearly enough weapons to keep pace with Miami's offense. Plus this is still the same defense that gave up 300 yards passing to Bailey Zappe. Then there's the whole heat factor. The Dolphins should coast through this one. Dolphins 31, Browns 21

TEXANS (+7) over GIANTS

The Texans are by no means a good team but they are better than their one-win record on the year suggests. The Giants are by no means a title contender but aren't that much worse than their 6-2 record would suggest. Big Blue is coming off a bye week which will help a lot but we were rather impressed with Houston's ability to hang with Philadelphia for as long as they did last Thursday. A backdoor cover feels inevitable here. Giants 27, Texans 21

STEELERS (+2.5) over SAINTS

Two proud fanbases will battle to stay relevant for a few more weeks. New Orleans will be on a short, depressing week. The weather should be inhospitable. Might not be entertaining but any win helps. Steelers 20, Saints 10

RAIDERS (-6) over COLTS

The Colts just fired Frank Reich and it does not feel like the sort of firing that will reinvigorate a team. The sky is falling in Indy and everyone is just playing out the year at this point. Knowing all that, it's best to jump on this line while it remains relatively low. Even this Raiders team can't fail under these circumstances at home. Right? Raiders 24, Colts 13

COWBOYS (-5) over PACKERS

The Cowboys are coming off a bye and should have fresh legs. The Packers, um, aren't doing so great. Aaron Rodgers looks like an average quarterback and the defense just lost Rashan Gary for the season. There is a possibility here that Rodgers comes out with a vengeance after an awful loss to a division rival but Dallas just feels like a bad matchup with a high-octane offense and opportunistic defense. Cowboys 34, Packers 27

CARDINALS (+3) over RAMS

The Rams are reeling after an awful loss to the Bucs. The complete absence of a run game is a big problem and even the incredible powers of Cooper Kupp cannot win them games. The defense is mad they had to defend that final drive against Tom Brady. Things are not great! And while they are not much better in Arizona at least the Cardinals have looked like a semicompetent team recently. Given the lack of home field advantage in LA we like Arizona for the upset. Cardinals 30, Rams 27

49ERS (-7) over CHARGERS

The Chargers managed a win against the Falcons but it was ugly. San Francisco is coming off a bye week and will be at home. The defense has been the best part of the Niners' season so far and Brandon Staley has shown a shocking inability to adjust when things aren't going well offensively. Maybe this line changes depending on the health of the Chargers' receivers but coming into Santa Clara and covering a seven-point spread feels like a tall order for this LA team. Bet on Kyle Shanahan to have a handful of new plays for Christian McCaffrey and emerge with the W. Niners 28, Chargers 20

COMMANDERS (+10.5) over EAGLES

We don't know what it is about Taylor Heinicke but the man is absolutely electric for an average QB. The Commanders have rallied around him and the defense is finally showing some backbone after a terrible start to the season. The Eagles have an extra-long rest for this one after their TNF matchup against Houston, but that game showed they are not a perfect team. This feels like it'll stay close until the final few minutes. Philly will pull away but Washington will make them work for it. Eagles 30, Commanders 24