NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Six Best Bets

Week 10 brought the audience an extremely exciting slate of games. It also brought us pain, as a 2-4 record knocked us back to 34-26 on the season. As much joy we take in seeing the Detroit Lions cover every week we strive for more. And we will be more. Here's to a profitable Week 11.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

LIONS (-10) over BEARS

What a sight to see Detroit favored by double digits. And, of course, we love it. The Bears are a terrible team and won't be able to do anything to stop the Lions' deadly offense. Tyler Bagent is not exactly Justin Herbert and won't be able to make the same magic happen when his offensive line breaks down, as it does quite often. With the game at the Ford Field dome the Lions will slam the door shut early on and dominate from start to end. They haven't messed around much with bad teams this season and they won't start now. Lions 31, Bears 17

PANTHERS (+10.5) over COWBOYS

This is a candidate for a real trap game for Dallas. The Panthers have an atrocious run defense but a shockingly good pass defense, ranking sixth in passing yards allowed per game this season. The Cowboys aren't going to be able to sleepwalk through this like they did the Giants game. Then you take into account one or two typically bizarre Dak Prescott turnovers and this one will be a lot closer than it should. We're not saying to bet any overs on Bryce Young, but we are saying to think long and hard about spread action. Cowboys 20, Panthers 10

STEELERS (+3.5) over BROWNS

It's been a struggle to find confidence in either team's betting lines this season, but one of the few certain things in NFL life is that AFC North games will be a slugfest. This should be no different. The Browns appear to be rounding into form but still needed great fortune to pull off their wild comeback against Baltimore last week. The Steelers have carved out ugly win after ugly win and it's always close; Pittsburgh's six wins this season have all been by one score. This feels like a coin flip matchup, even in Cleveland, that will come down to one last field goal. Browns 17, Steelers 14

GIANTS (+9.5) over COMMANDERS

It may be insanity to take the Giants to cover after a demoralizing, destructive loss at the hands of the Cowboys on Sunday. But man. Nearly 10 points in favor of the Commanders?! They've been more functional than we all expected but they're still far from the crop of elite teams receiving double-digit spreads every week. Sam Howell is fine but won't destroy New York's defense like Dak Prescott. Similarly, Washington's defense is solid and is particularly well-suited along the defensive line to deal with what Brian Daboll has decided to do with Tommy DeVito. But they don't have a world-beater like Micah Parsons and their secondary is fairly suspect. There's a good chance neither team scores 10 points, much less covers by 10. Commanders 13, Giants 6

CARDINALS (+4) over TEXANS

CJ Stroud is absolutely the real deal and this game is in Houston. But four points for a team as young as the Texans feels like a lot, especially going up against a Cardinals team that just got back Kyler Murray. It wouldn't surprise anybody if the Texans came out a bit flat after two emotional come-from-behind victories that pushed them to the center of the national spotlight, and Arizona has to be riding high after their own exciting come-from-behind win in Murray's first game in nearly a year. A lot is lining up for an upset, but the reality is that neither team is dominant enough to pull away so the spread shouldn't be a problem. Cardinals 24, Texans 21

DOLPHINS (-12) over RAIDERS

The resurgent Raiders have been a great story (even if it feels awfully familiar), ripping off a few wins after escaping from underneath the thumb of Josh McDaniels. This week will be the week they come crashing back to reality, though. The Dolphins are coming off a bye and will enjoy that classic Miami homefield advantage. Furthermore it feels like they'll be playing with something to prove after letting a win against the Chiefs slip away over in Germany. Above all, though, the Dolphins have firepower the likes of which the Raiders have no hope of keeping up with. The good times will no longer roll for Vegas. Dolphins 37, Raiders 17