NFL Week 18 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Six Best Bets

Barring a complete disaster on an always unpredictable final week, we should finish above .500 for the regular season after going 3-2-1 over the holiday weekend. That brings us to 48-45 (.516) and to the conclusion that we would have been pretty bad if not for those trusty Detroit Lions. As a word of warning: wager at your own peril as the league closes out their season because there's no way know who is playing and who isn't and no way to know how things will change in that department as the day goes on. But please, have fun.

LIONS (-5) over VIKINGS

Uhh do you think a Dan Campbell team is going to come out flat after the world-class screwing suffered in Dallas? We just saw Minnesota get absolutely housed in their own building by the Packers and only Kevin O'Connell knows who will be playing quarterback. And ultimately that doesn't matter because none of them on that roster are particularly scary. This line is so low because Detroit needs both the Cowboys and Eagles to win in order to move up to the No. 2 seed, which is pretty unlikely, but my gut tells me it's very important for them to send a message. Lions 35, Vikings 13

PACKERS (-3) over BEARS

Green Bay needs to win in order to make the playoffs. Chicago wants to win to continue positive momentum. Justin Fields has been fantastic but we are just not ready to believe he can go up to the frozen tundra and eliminate his hated rivals. Jordan Love looks awesome and it'll be some sweet justice to see this team make the postseason without Aaron Rodgers. Packers 24, Bears 20

CHARGERS (-1.5) over CHIEFS

No one is going to play for the Chiefs. The Chargers probably don't care either. This line is so absurd and weird and bizarre that we'll just take the home team with the hope Easton Stick wants to showcase his talents. We don't know. Good luck. Chargers 27, Chiefs 20

TITANS (+5) over JAGUARS

If the Jaguars win on Sunday, they are AFC South champs and will host a playoff game. It's as simple as that. But in Jacksonville, nothing is ever simple. Steamrolling the Carolina Panthers is not a feather in C.J. Beathard's cap so expectations shouldn't be high if he has to start. The chances of a cover are much higher if Trevor Lawrence lines up under center after missing last week with an injury, but Mike Vrabel is exactly the kind of coach who can motivate his guys to play their best ball out of sheer spite and a desire to ruin the opposite sideline's day. The Jags should pull it out but it's never easy for them so it'll be closer than it needs to be. Jaguars 20, Titans 16

JETS (+2.5) over PATRIOTS

This one is a gut check, pure and simple. Based on the last two or so weeks the Patriots are the better team (barely) and have managed to not completely embarrass themselves, which is an improvement from midseason. Bill Belichick relishes beating the Jets and would never consider letting his foot off the gas pedal even if it helps with draft positioning. But would there be a more fitting way for the all-time great head coach's tenure in New England to end than to lose to the Jets in Week 18? I think not. Sports love to come full circle and we've reached that moment for Belichick. Jets 13, Patriots 9

COWBOYS (-13.5) over COMMANDERS

The Cowboys need to win to stay in contention for the NFC East title and since the Eagles will be playing at the same time Dallas is almost guaranteed to play all their starters for the majority of the contest. The same starters who dropped 45 points on the Commanders just over a month ago. Combined with the fact that Washington has absolutely nothing to play for and it feels like a solid bet to believe the Cowboys will run it up with little hope for a backdoor cover. Cowboys 33, Commanders 17