Brian Kelly Must Beat Clemson to Get the Monkey Off His Back
If not now, when?
That has to be the question on Notre Dame fans' minds heading into Saturday night's showdown against top-ranked Clemson. With Tigers starting quarterback and presumptive first-overall NFL draft pick Trevor Lawrence already ruled out due to COVID and two starters on defense also out, the fourth-ranked Irish have their best chance to get the monkey off Brian Kelly's back and give him a win over a Top-5 opponent for the first time in his 11-year tenure at the school. If they can't get it done at home against an injury-riddled opponent transitioning on the fly, it's fair to wonder if they ever will under Kelly's guidance.
That's not a knock on Kelly. He's done a tremendous job recruiting NFL-level talent at a university with rigorous academic standards. He's successfully coached that talent to a Top-5 regular-season ranking six times and has made one College Football Playoff semifinal appearance and one BCS National Championship appearance. But Notre Dame was embarrassed in both of those games against elite competition (42-14 against Alabama in 2012, 30-3 against Clemson in 2018) and Kelly has failed to earn a marquee win in his decade-plus in South Bend.
If not now, when?
Clemson comes in fresh off a fourth-quarter comeback victory over a 4-3 Boston College squad devoid of the kind of talent Notre Dame possesses. Besides Lawrence being ruled out, starting defensive tackle Tyler Davis and starting linebacker Mike Jones Jr. will not play either. Davis is one of the top run stoppers on the team and Jones sets the edge at strong-side linebacker.
Replacing Lawrence is former five-star recruit D.J. Uiagalelei. At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, he's built like a freight truck and has one of the strongest arms in the country. But he's still a freshman, only 19-years-old, and this is his first start on the road. That's perfect for a Notre Dame defense that sacks quarterbacks 8.76 percent of the time (26th in the nation), gives up only 93.7 rushing yards per game (10th in the nation), and allows only 10.3 points per game (fifth in the nation).
If not now, when?
Since Kelly took over in 2010, Notre Dame has won only three games against teams that finished the season in the Top-10 rankings. Two of those came in 2012 (Michigan State, Oklahoma) and one came in 2018 (Stanford). Outside of those games, they've been trounced by Alabama and Clemson, as already mentioned, were physically dominated by No. 3 Georgia in 2019 and narrowly lost to No. 2 Florida State on a fourth-quarter touchdown in 2014. Overall they've gone 0-4 against Top-5 teams and 5-4 in bowl games under Kelly.
While the Fighting Irish have had some big in-the-moment wins over Top-25 teams during Kelly's tenure, they have yet to beat or even really compete with the best teams in the nation (with the exception of Florida State). Even without Lawrence, this would be the biggest victory for Kelly and the Irish in over a decade. Beyond putting them in the driver's seat to make the College Football Playoffs again (with four games against unranked opponents remaining), this would be their first win over a No. 1 ranked team since 1993 and Kelly's first win over a Top-5 team at Notre Dame. Everything is lined up perfectly for them to do so.
If not now, when?