On College Football: Jim Harbaugh Is The Khaki-Clad Angel of Vengeance
By Ty Duffy
Week 7 should be “Separation Saturday.” Are alliterative ESPN weekend themes still a thing? There are five inter-top 20 matchups. In a development August folks would have found incredible, those games involve Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan, and Florida. Can we get through the weekend with everybody still employed?
Kings of the North: Traditionally, the inter-state rivalry is strongigger for Michigan State. But, the Notre Dame game is gone. The Spartans have won 6 of 7 under Mark Dantonio, while dominating physically. It’s a reversal. It’s antithetical to Michigan tradition. Wolverine fans want stronglood. This game, perhaps more than any others, condemned Brady Hoke. Michigan now turns to its khaki-clad angel of vengeance to end the slide.
Perception and reality square off here. The Spartans entered the season well thought of and have done just enough to get by. Michigan, after an opening loss at Utah, has dominated. Advanced metrics and Vegas (-8.5) make the Wolverines clear favorites. In the Coaches Poll, Michigan State is 10 places ahead and earned a No. 1 vote. That is after Michigan jumped seven spots last week.
The Cross Division Rivals Rivalry: Florida vs. LSU. They’ve been playing each other. The Tigers aren’t a total shock at 6-0. Most expected the undefeated Gators to finish somewhere around 6-6. Florida lost its starting quarterback, supplement miscreant Will Grier, to NCAA suspension for a calendar year. LSU has not had a quarterback all season. The Tigers have been about the worst FBS team trying to attempt the forward pass.
Can the Gator run defense stop, slow down, sort of restrain clear Heisman front-runner Leonard Fournette? The answer will decide this one.
Kevin and Nick: If not great, the Sumlin vs. Saban games have been notable. Texas A&M sprung the upset in Tuscaloosa in 2012, with Johnny Manziel spearheading a 29-24 win. The 2013 affair at Kyle Field finished with a 49-42 Alabama win. Last year, the Tide crushed the Aggies 59-0, handing them their third-straight defeat and marking the definitive end of the Kenny Trill Era.
Bama seems somewhat for real. Though, unlike Georgia, the Aggies can throw the ball. Texas A&M should be well rested. They are coming off a bye. The farthest they have traveled is Arlington.
UCLA vs. Stanford: Both teams enter off bye weeks. This is the first of back-to-back Thursday night games for the Bruins. Jim Mora, rest assured, has had his whine about it. Jekyll Kevin Hogan is back. He ranks 6th nationally in yards/att, 7th in passer rating and hasn’t had “should have transferred to play for Jim Harbaugh” face since Week 1 at Northwestern.
UCLA’s defense, with injuries up the gut, will be tested against Stanford’s rushing attack. Stanford’s defense has been, quietly, anything but Stanford-like. The Cardinal rank in the triple-digits in sacks, tackles for loss, 3rd down defense, red zone defense and forced turnovers.
Yes, This is a Top 20 Matchup: Iowa heads on the road to Evanston, with momentous implications for the B1G West. We’re not suggesting this will be appointment viewing (or even tolerable). But, we must remind you about the very real prospect of Iowa running the table. Here is the rest of the schedule if Iowa gets by Northwestern here after the bye: Maryland, (at) Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, (at) Nebraska.
SPURRIER HEADS TO ANN ARBOR
Steve Spurrier retired. College GameDay booked him within hours (perhaps minutes). He visits Ann Arbor this weekend. The trip north will be quite the novelty. In 23 SEC seasons, the HBC travelled outside the conference footprint for a football game twice. Florida played at Syracuse non-conference in 1991. The Gators travelled to Arizona for the 1995 Fiesta Bowl.
PICKS
We went 3-2 last week. Our picks are 22-8 ATS on the season. Here’s who we like for week 7.
Michigan (-8.5) vs. Michigan State: Michigan State is the second most popular bet this season. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS. Michigan is coming off three-straight shutouts. MSU limped to one-score wins against Purdue and Rutgers. The latter manhandled Sparty’s banged up O-Line last week. Trust the trends, the numbers, and the khakis. Take Blue.
USC (+7) at Notre Dame: Notre Dame is 2-6 in its last 8 games the week after facing Navy’s triple option. The two wins were one-score efforts against Purdue and Wake Forest. The loss tally includes Syracuse and Tulsa. These teams aren’t far off in advanced metrics. ND has not faced a quality passing team yet. USC has the athleticism to match up with Notre Dame’s receivers. If there’s a time where traveling cross-country for a rivalry game is a good thing, this is it.
West Virginia (+21.5) at Baylor: The best SOS-adjusted defense Baylor has faced this season is Texas Tech, No. 118. West Virginia is No. 7. The Mountaineers have a good offense, going against an untested, underwhelming Baylor defense. WVU killed themselves with turnovers in losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. They get it together here. Take the points in a shootout.
Boston College (+15.5) vs. Clemson: BC’s defense has allowed two touchdown drives in six games. One, by NIU, went four yards (and took three plays). Clemson’s offense has been effective, but it’s about to meet a buzzsaw. The Eagles have a record of making Clemson work for it. This should be a defensive battle. Take the points.
Vanderbilt (+2.5) vs. South Carolina: Both teams have awful offenses. The Commodores have a Top 25-caliber defense. Vanderbilt has been good on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. South Carolina has been bad. It’s hard to see how Steve Spurrier leaving will be in any way heartening. Derek Mason gets his first “big” conference win.