The Pacers Vastly Overpaid In Pascal Siakam Trade

The Indiana Pacers made a big splash on Wednesday, landing two-time All-Star Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors in a blockbuster trade. While Siakam makes the Pacers decidedly better in the short-term, the Pacers surrendered far too much to land a guy a few months from free agency.

The Pacers received Siakam, and second-round pick from the New Orleans Pelicans, while sending the Raptors Bruce Brown Jr., Jordan Nwora, two first-round picks in the 2024 NBA Draft and a first-rounder in 2026. Toronto also received Kira Lewis Jr. from New Orleans. Dumping Lewis puts the Pelicans below the luxury tax threshold, so they'll save roughly $18 million and there's no word what they'll receive back.

On the surface, this isn't a bad deal for the Pacers. They landed an All-Star level talent and gave up two role players, two first-rounders that are likely to be in the 20s and another first-rounder two years from now. It won't tax the team's resources at the moment. Here's the problem: Siakam will turn 30 in April and he's about to get very expensive. That's why the Raptors wanted to move him.

Essentially the Pacers surrendered all that capital to secure Siakam's Bird Rights. This summer they can offer him a five-year, $247 million max deal that no one else can match. By going all-in to get him, they've signaled that's what they'll do. Again, on paper, it makes sense. They're giving young star point guard Tyrese Halliburton an All-Star level running buddy who they likely plan on locking down for a long time. But nothing is that simple.

Look around the NBA and find me the guys in their early 30s living up to those $50 million a year contracts. They're really hard to find. Siakam doesn't seem likely to buck that trend.

This season, Siakam is averaging 22.2 point, 6.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists in 34.7 minutes per game. He's shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 75.8 percent from the free throw line but his 3-point shooting is down as he's only hitting 31.7 percent from deep. There's no doubting that at his best, Siakam can be an All-NBA caliber player. He made the second team in 2020 and the third team in 2022. He also won a title with the Raptors in 2019. He's an accomplished player. But how much longer does he have before his inevitable downturn?

The Pacers are currently sixth in the Eastern Conference and are the NBA's highest-scoring team. They push the tempo and Siakam gets a lot of points in transition. It's a good fit. But the long-term here is murky. They gave up too much for a guy who could wind up being a drag on their balance sheet for years.