Ryan Fitzpatrick Got a 6-year, $59 Million Contract with $24 Million Guaranteed

Your first inclination is to compare his 6-year, $59 million deal with $24 million guaranteed to what Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel got.

Kolb: 5-years, $63 million, $21 million guaranteed (in 2011)
Cassel: 6-years, $63 million, $28 million guaranteed (in 2009)

Here’s the problem: Just because Arizona and Kansas City (respectively) grossly overpaid for these guys, it doesn’t mean the Bills should have done the same.

This was a mistake, but I’ll get to that in a moment.

First, let’s start with Fitzpatrick: Nice player. Solid QB. Finished last season strong, and is part of the reason the Bills are off to a 4-2 start. That’s impressive, considering their recent wretched history. Also, he’s got crap receivers to work with (Stevie Johnson is OK).

Let’s examine who Fitzpatrick has carved up this season:
1) 17th rated pass defense in KC
2) 25th rated pass defense in Oakland
3) 32nd rated pass defense in New England

Then, in week four, against the 5th best pass defense in the league (Cincinnati), Fitzpatrick struggled in a loss: 20-of-34 for 199 with no touchdowns. He was serviceable the following week in a win over Philadelphia (21-of-27, 193 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; the Buffalo defense won that game). Against the 18th rated pass defense of the Giants, Fitzpatrick threw two picks, including a costly one in the 4th quarter as the Bills were driving to take the lead.

I know Fitzpatrick was solid last year (3,000 yards passing, 23 TDs, 6.8 YPA) on an awful team. And the potential of losing him as a free agent at season’s end would be a bad look to the fans and a setback to a franchise that appears to be making progress (through six games, anyway).

But to whom could they lose him?

Operating under the assumption that Fitzpatrick wasn’t going anywhere to be a backup, the following teams may have made a move on him at season’s end:

Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers

I ruled out the Jags, Panthers, Titans, Rams and Vikings because they all have 1st round money tied up in QBs. I left the Colts and Dolphins off the list because they’ll draft in the Top 10 and presumably take QBs. One could make the argument the Browns will take a QB in the Top 10, too. So basically, Seattle and San Francisco were the only two alternatives for Fitzpatrick.

Why shell out that much money when you’re essentially bidding against yourself? They could have easily saved some money and rolled that into the defense – which is opportunistic (12 interceptions), but 3rd worst against the run – during free agency.

And yes, having written this, I expect Fitzpatrick to go 20-for-25 for 299 yards and three scores in a romp over the Redskins today.