Stanford Beating Notre Dame Could End the Playoff Chaos
By Ty Duffy
Chaos scenarios, by design, have captivated the college football-verse. The trouble is almost all of those scenarios depend on one outcome: Notre Dame beating Stanford. If the Cardinal take care of business at home (as a -3.5 favorite), things could get boring. Barring some convoluted, improbable scenarios, the playoff would sort out neatly. The committee would have no decision to make.
The playoff, right now, is set up to be four conference champs: ACC, B10, B12, SEC. Stanford eliminates a credible fifth team, Notre Dame, with a win. The two-loss Cardinal do not provide a compelling alternative.
Let’s look at Stanford’s résumé. Notre Dame gives them a Top 25 win. UCLA and Washington State are barely in the Top 20. UCLA maybe hangs on by a fingernail if they beat USC, lose to Stanford again and finish 9-4. USC at 8-5 would not be ranked. If the Cougars lose the Apple Cup, the Bruins would be Stanford’s next best win. Can this two-loss Cardinal team crack the top four?
Stanford vs. B12 Champ: The B12 will produce a one-loss champ. That one-loss champ will get in ahead of Stanford.
Stanford vs. SEC Champ: Stanford’s chance here comes against either a two-loss Florida (to FSU) or a three-loss Ole Miss. Florida beating Bama in the SEC Title Game would vault them over Stanford. Maybe they slot in ahead of a 10-3 Ole Miss. Neither scenario is likely.
Stanford vs. B1G (Champ): There are two outcomes where this is a discussion: a one-loss Iowa (to Nebraska) champ or a two-loss Michigan. Both Iowa (MSU, NW) and Michigan (OSU, Iowa, NW) would have wins to match with Stanford. Common opponent becomes a major factor. Stanford lost to Northwestern by 10. Michigan crushed NW 38-0. Iowa beat the Wildcats by 30 in Evanston. Stanford could, in a convoluted scenario, be a discussion, but it’s hard to see the Cardinal knocking out a B1G champ.
Stanford vs. ACC (Champ): A one-loss Clemson (to South Carolina) may be a discussion. Though, the two best wins (ND at home) negate. Stanford would have to overcome the W-L record and Clemson (FSU/UNC) potentially having better No. 2 and No. 3 wins. North Carolina? Stanford probably gets the nod.
Other One-Loss Teams: There’s a scenario where the committee should consider a one-loss team that lost its conference over a conference champ. That’s not 11-1 Ohio State with one decent win against Michigan. That’s probably not an 11-1 Baylor team with a backup QB maligned all season for not playing anyone.
Substantial upsets are possible. Mathematically things could still get crazy. But, if Stanford takes down Notre Dame, there may not be much for college football fans to yell about after the final round of games.
THE GAME
It’s late November. It’s cold. It’s grey. It’s time. Harbaugh-Meyermageddon was set. Mark Dantonio pooped all over it. The Game may yet decide the B1G East. But, we’ll find out afterward, when Michigan State plays Penn State. The prospect of a Penn State win is just cruel enough to keep the hope alive. Your narrative for this week: Ohio State’s internal discord made public.
The Buckeyes are the more capable team. Michigan has been the more coherent and consistent one. Most advanced metrics have these teams dead even. There are some specific x-factors. Where and how often does Michigan use Jabrill Peppers? Will Ohio State try to pass? How intimately will Joey Bosa and Jake Rudock become acquainted?
However, the Game holds true to its reputation. It gets decided between the tackles. The more prolific rushing team has won every game in this series since 2001. Twelve of 14 times, that has been Ohio State. Harbaugh has brought a lot to the Wolverines. But, his power rushing attack remains a work in progress. Michigan has been held to less than four yards/carry five times this season (including losses to Utah and Michigan State), four times in the past five games.
THE RIVALRY OF CONVENIENCE
Notre Dame wanted to recruit California. Stanford wanted someone to watch them. A yearly rivalry was born and saved for practical concerns amidst realignment. We talked about the ramifications. What about the game?
Both the Irish and Cardinal have explosive offenses with favorable matchups. Stanford struggles with the pass. Notre Dame can’t stop the run. Fatigue could be a factor for both teams. Notre Dame heads to the opposite end of the country for its second-straight road trip. Stanford’s defense just played Oregon and the Bear Raid back-to-back.
Expect yards. But, remember to factor in Notre Dame’s red zone conversion rate and David Shaw’s big game play-calling before pounding that over.
BEDLAM
The Big 12 round robin approaches the finish. Bob Stoops is a road favorite in a night rivalry game with a playoff place on the line. What could go wrong? Oklahoma wins the B12 with a win. Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma and have Baylor lose to TCU or Texas.
On paper, the Sooners do everything well. They throw. They run. They stop other teams from throwing and running. They play very good special teams. They have a plus turnover margin. Baker Mayfield looks like he’s a go. Oklahoma State can’t run the ball, and cannot stop the pass.
If good Oklahoma shows up, the Sooners should be playoff bound. But, given recent history, there’s always a slight if.
Picks
We went 2-3 last week. That brings our record to 35-25 on the season. We’re guaranteed to be above .500, but we’d like to close strong.
N.C. State (+6.5) vs. UNC: The Tar Heels have been mortal away from home. Their last multiple-score win in Raleigh came in 1997 under Mack Brown. N.C. State has a veteran QB and a good defense. They can run the ball. They don’t turn the ball over. That sounds like the recipe for a rivalry upset on the road in a look-ahead spot.
Nebraska (+1.5) vs. Iowa: This is a Cornhusker line. It’s a look ahead position for Iowa, who have already clinched the West. Nebraska is coming off a bye and needs to win this to reach a bowl game. It will be cold. It will be windy. Nebraska has a good run defense. Your kids may be spared a traumatic conversation.
Auburn (+13.5) vs. Alabama: Title-bound Alabama heads to Jordan-Hare as a double-digit favorite…this script sounds familiar. Auburn has not been good, but they haven’t been that bad. They have not been defeated by more than one score since the LSU game in September. Auburn’s run defense hasn’t been that bad. Alabama ranks 51st in passer rating, 70th in yards/att, and have a 15-10 TD/INT ratio. Too many points for a road favorite in this rivalry. That Gus Bus ticket must be around here somewhere…
Missouri (+14) at Arkansas: The Razorbacks are coming off a brutal 51-50 loss at home, preceded by two road trips (and an additional shootout). They have two multiple score FBS wins this season, one was over UTEP. Missouri has a great defense, and can still get Gary Pinkel to a send off bowl game. Arkansas is really, really bad against the pass. Missouri may get enough traction to cover.
San Jose State (+7.5) vs. Boise State: Boise State should be primed to come out flat on the road after two tough losses and playing an option team. The Broncos do not run the ball well. The Spartans have an excellent pass defense, and need one more win to keep their season alive.