The Big Lead

What are the chances your team makes the NFL Playoffs?

By Max Weisman

The Chiefs are looking to become the first NFL team to three-peat
The Chiefs are looking to become the first NFL team to three-peat / Denny Medley-Imagn Images
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Through two weeks in the NFL season it's difficult to separate the contenders from the pretenders. ESPN's FPI calculates each team's current playoff odds -- it hasn't updated the New England Patriots and New York Jets odds after Thursday night's game -- and right now 15 teams have higher than 50% chance to reach the postseason.

Just using FPI's numbers heading into Week 3, the seeding for each conference would look like this:

AFC: The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers would be division winners, and the Los Angeles Chargers, Jets and Cincinnati Bengals would be the wild cards.
NFC: The New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers would be division winners, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings would be the wild cards.

On the flip side, while this isn't calculating the odds of having the worst record in the league and the number one overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft, the three bottom teams in playoff odds are the New York Giants, Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers. Each team has less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs.

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The Giants, Broncos and Panthers will likely be fighting all season for the top pick in the draft and it might be that this will be the top three in April. They rank 30th, 31st and 32nd in Points For through two weeks and there's no sign of a turnaround.

Carolina benched quarterback Bryce Young after a second abysmal start. Denver is starting rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who hasn't yet thrown a touchdown but has thrown four picks. New York is sticking with Daniel Jones at quarterback who is in year two of a 4-year $160 million contract that the Giants likely regret, despite what co-owner John Mara says.

If those teams are thinking about grabbing a quarterback in the draft, Carson Beck, Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers are the top college prospects.

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