Raiders hiring Pete Carroll as head coach the ultimate high-risk, high-reward move

The Las Vegas Raiders brought their head coaching search to an end on Friday, hiring former Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll to lead the team on a three-year contract, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

The move was a bit of a surprise from Mark Davis and the Raiders, but after losing out on both Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, Carroll was clearly the top name on their board.

It's a move that could pay massive dividends for them, or it could blow up in their face, without much in between.

There's no denying Carroll's coaching bona fides; other than his one-year stint with the New York Jets at the start of his head coaching career, he has a winning record at every stop he's made along the way. He's had just four losing seasons in 18 years of coaching; one in New York and three in Seattle.

His USC tenure ranks among the most impressive runs in college football history; he took the Trojans from 6-6 in his first season to winning an AP national title in 2003, a BCS title in 2004, and not finishing worse than fourth in any AP poll between 2002 and 2008.

In other words, all he's done is win, and win quickly, in every stop he's made. He's the kind of coach you want to bring in when your team is in need of a spark, and is known as a players coach.

But this move isn't without a considerable amount of risk. In both of his previous extended NFL stops, in New England and Seattle, Carroll was coming into a fairly decent situation. In New England, the team was fresh off a 11-5 season with a Super Bowl berth under Bill Parcells, and had an established quarterback in Drew Bledsoe and a solid defense. In Seattle, the Seahawks had Marshawn Lynch on the verge of a breakout, an anchor piece for Carroll to build around.

The Raiders' situation is decidedly more dire than either of those. They have one of the NFL's least-talented rosters, on par with the Patriots, Titans, and Giants in terms of lack of talent. They have a potential superstar at tight end in Brock Bowers, but their quarterback situation was one of the worst in the NFL this season, and while wideout Jakobi Meyers posted a 1,000 yard receiving season, he's not exactly what you would call an elite receiver.

None of their running backs broke 500 yards, and only 31-year-old Ameer Abdullah managed to average better than four yards a carry, albeit on just 66 carries.

The defense was marginally better, but still not good; they ranked 26th in scoring defense, and 18th in yards allowed. They managed just 35 sacks on the year despite having Maxx Crosby, and were largely lifeless for much of the season.

In other words, Carroll is staring down the prospect of the biggest rebuild he's had to do in his career. He needs to find a quarterback, find receivers, build up the offensive line, and construct a functional NFL defense. It will be the biggest rebuild of his career, and there is ample opportunity for it to go wrong.

On top of that, Carroll's age is a factor here as well. He's 73, an age when many coaches are ready to hang it up or have done so already. Does he have the drive and energy to fully build a whole new roster from the ground up in Las Vegas? This is the worst situation he's come into as a coach; does he have the juice to fix it up properly?

If he does, he has the coaching chops to turn the Raiders into a perennial contender for the first time in over 20 years. But if he doesn't, expect this prolonged period of misery for fans to continue for at least another three to five years, if not longer.

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