Ranking the likeliest College Football Playoff 2025 first round upsets

With the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff kicking off this weekend, we have no shortage of potential juicy storylines coming from every game on the schedule. But unlike in years past, we also have the potential for something that traditionally only comes from March Madness: real, honest-to-goodness upsets.

With the higher seeded teams hosting first round games at home, the potential for those upsets gets even more heartbreaking; there's nothing worse than blowing a game against a demonstrably inferior team at home.

But who should be the most concerned? Who is at the highest risk for losing in the first round at home? Let's take a look, and rank the least to most likely first round upsets.

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4. TEXAS vs. CLEMSON

Why The Upset Won't Happen: To put it simply, this Clemson team just isn't very good. Their only quality win came against SMU in the ACC title game, where they needed a last-second 56-yard rocket of a field goal to hold off the Mustangs' late charge. Prior to that, they got their teeth kicked in by Georgia, got run over by Louisville, and couldn't slow Lanorris Sellers down against South Carolina. Those are three losses to the only three good teams on this schedule.

While Texas has looked awfully mortal against Georgia, they've stomped out basically all other comers this season. They won their other 11 games by an average of 26.6 points. They're significantly better than Clemson on both sides of the ball, even with Ewers banged up.

Why The Upset Will Happen: Texas is a talented team, but they're not the dominant force of nature they were last year. The offense struggles to run the ball consistently against good teams, and quarterback Quinn Ewers has looked both flawed as a passer and banged up for several weeks now. They're fresh off a loss to Georgia in which the offense failed to find any kind of consistent success, and the tension figures to be high for Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has plenty of playoff experience and figures to have the Tigers ready to go.

The Verdict: Texas is an 11.5 point favorite in this game with good reason. This Clemson team doesn't figure to be much of a struggle for the Longhorns, especially in front of a delirious home crowd. I'm not going to say it can't happen, but I don't see a lot of ways that it will.

3. NOTRE DAME vs. INDIANA

Why The Upset Won't Happen: There's a reason the Irish have no-sold the Hoosiers over the years: Indiana has, historically, been a doormat. This is a true Cinderella campaign for Indiana, but they're still not on the same level as any other team in this field in terms of talent.

In their singular game against top-tier competition, Indiana looked awfully flat against Ohio State. But the red flags don't stop there. The Hoosiers failed to move the ball effectively in the second half against Michigan as well. Against an elite defense like the Irish, it feels highly unlikely that Cignetti's team is going to find much success.

Why The Upset Will Happen: The Indiana Hoosiers are living a charmed life this season, which is unquestionably the best in program history by a significant margin. Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers flying high and punching with the big boys in his first season, with an explosively efficient offense and a tenacious defense. They're not SMU, in that the offense can just casually drop 35 points in a quarter, but the Hoosiers put points on the board with a ruthless level of efficiency seldom seen in college football.

Notre Dame have treated the Hoosiers like they don't exist for the vast majority of the programs' histories; they've played just 29 times, and ther last meeting was in 1991. Notre Dame is good, incredibly good, but they would really rather not throw the football unless absolutely necessary. If Indiana gets up by a couple scores early, this could get very interesting, because the Irish will have to come back through the air, which has not gone great for them this year.

The Verdict: Make no mistake: Indiana can win this game. If they get up early it changes the entire tenor of things, as the Irish aren't built to play catch up. They're built to hit you in the mouth, knock you down, and sit on you. If they can't do that, they get much more beatable, and Indiana has enough offensive talent to make them sweat.

But something being possible doesn't mean it's likely. Notre Dame is an extremely good team, who could be a great team by the time the dust settles. The Hoosiers are a great story, and them winning this game would be the single biggest victory the program has ever had (while also being INCREDIBLY funny), but they're at a talent disadvantage that makes this win unlikely.

2. PENN STATE vs. SMU

Why The Upset Won't Happen: On paper, this one shouldn't be all that close. Penn State have looked like a top five-to-ten team all season long. They have a dominant run game, a passing game that has gone from a liability to a real, viable weapon over the course of this season. Their defense is terrifying against the run and the pass, and can shut down even elite wide receivers and backs.

SMU struggled to find purchase against the worst team in this field in Clemson; it's hard to see a path to success for them against an upper-middle tier team in Penn State. They needed three quarters to really get rolling in the ACC title game, and if it takes them that long to get going here they could find themselves in a hole they can't dig out of.

Why The Upset Will Happen: Ask any Penn State how they feel about James Franklin coaching in a big game. Watch the way fear fills their eyes, the way their breath gets a little ragged, and beads of sweat start to form on their foreheads. Hear the note of anger in their voice, flavored with a healthy dose of rage.

He cannot win a big game. It's like he forgets how to coach, he changes his philosophy and becomes much more conservative, much less willing to indulge the creative play-calling that offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki loves to draw up. He'll let you hang around, won't put the proverbial foot on the throat. And then the inevitable loss happens, and Nittany Lion fans are left feeling the same way they've felt against every good team in the last 10 years: profoundly disappointed.

The Verdict: Let me make this clear: Penn State should win this game. They are the better team, and historically, when James Franklin has the better team, they win.

However, should is not the same thing as will. Ask yourself this: do you trust Franklin to handle the brightest lights of his career and take care of business? Do you trust him to make smart decisions if SMU's offense is driving to win the game near the end of regulation, or if Penn State needs a late drive to win?

I don't, and neither should you. This one has high potential to get weird.

1. OHIO STATE vs. TENNESSEE

Why The Upset Won't Happen: Ohio State is one of the two or three most talented teams in the country this season. They're good against the run and pass defensively, and have the single best wide receiver room in the country, bar none. Their running backs are incredibly talented.

Tennessee are a team on the rise, but they're not fully baked yet. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is just a freshman, the wide receivers hardly strike terror into opposing defenses, and the offense has been maddeningly inconsistent all season, particularly against good teams.

Why The Upset Will Happen: Is there a team coming into the playoff with worse vibes than Ohio State? The fan base is on edge after a fourth straight loss to Michigan. Head coach Ryan Day has shown a knack for losing to good teams, and has a quarterback in Will Howard who can best be described as "competent game manager." The offensive line is banged up and vulnerable.

And Tennessee, for all their faults, is the absolute last team that this Buckeyes team wants to see right now. Their defense is terrifying; led by James Pearce Jr., the defensive line figures to terrorize Howard and the Ohio State offensive line all night. Running back Dylan Sampson is a star in the making, and while Iamaleava and the passing game are still inconsistent, when they hit, they hit BIG.

If you're an edgy Ohio State team worried about your ability to win a big game, do you want to stabilize against an unspectacular SMU team, or do you want a Tennessee team that is the single biggest force of potential chaos in the field, with the offensive firepower to hang with your skilled offense, and a defense capable of making your night incredibly long.

The Verdict: Much like Penn State, Ohio State should win here. They're better than the Vols, and in an ideal world, they'll take care of business, shut down Tennessee's inconsistent passing game, and settle everyone down a little before the quarterfinals.

But, let's say Tennessee hits on a couple of deep balls early, goes up a couple scores, and gets another defensive stop. Say they're up 17-0, or up 14-0 and driving again. The atmosphere at Buckeye Stadium would turn SO quickly. This is a fan base on the edge, and any bit of struggle that comes in this game is going to be met with genuine worry. I'd pop some popcorn and enjoy this one, because no matter how it goes, it's absolutely going to be entertaining.

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