The Big Lead

Super Bowl LIX supercomputer gives Kansas City Chiefs 58.4 percent chance of historic three-peat

The Super Bowl LIX numbers have been crunched, the results are in, and it's good news if you're a Kansas City Chiefs fan.

By Simon Head

Feb. 12, 2023: Andy Reid and Travis Kelce celebrate the Kansas City Chiefs' win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Feb. 12, 2023: Andy Reid and Travis Kelce celebrate the Kansas City Chiefs' win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. / Michael Chow / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Super Bowl LIX is fast approaching, and sports bettors across the nation are deep-diving into the betting markets in search of some value, or entertainment, to enhance their enjoyment of the big game.

And, ahead of the clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, Action Network’s Super Bowl supercomputer has crunched the numbers to deliver a raft of pre-Super Bowl stats, including an outright prediction for the result.

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The supercomputer is a probability model, that estimates the outcome of an upcoming game based on a team’s current strength, based on several factors including form and betting market odds. 

The machine then runs 1,000 simulations to produce a set of average statistics and probabilities.

The supercomputer has calculated that the Chiefs have a 58.4 percent chance of claiming victory, and a historic three-peat, on Super Bowl Sunday, compared to the Eagles’ 41.6 percent.

The supercomputer has also forecasted the most likely final score, and, crucially for bettors, the most likely point spread between the two teams, with the average final score of 25.8-23.5 to the Chiefs, giving Kansas City an edge of 2.3 points. It has also predicted that the chances of the game going to overtime are 3.4 percent.

A thousand game simulations were calculated to produce the average figures, with the most common outcome falling between a one-point win for the Eagles and a six-point win for the Chiefs, with 22.7 percent of the supercomputer’s simulations returning a result within that range. A wider Chiefs win – between six and 13 points – occurred in 19.9 percent of simulations.

The simulations also produced a list of the most likely final scores, with the most likely being a 30-27 victory for Kansas City, a 0.42 percent chance.

  1. 30-27 Chiefs (0.42%)
  2. 25-22 Chiefs (0.41%)
  3. 27-22 Chiefs (0.38%)
  4. 27-24 Chiefs (0.36%)
  5. 29-26 Chiefs (0.36%)

The supercomputer also calculated the Super Bowl LIX MVP favorites, and unsurprisingly Patrick Mahomes topped the list, as a 47.2 percent chance of winning the award, with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts a 14.8 percent chance. 

The Eagles’ best shot of an MVP winner, according to the simulations, is running back Saquon Barkley, who has a 22.6 percent chance of claiming the MVP and rounding off his incredible season since moving to Philly from the New York Giants.

Other notables in the MVP race include Travis Kelce (3.3%), AJ Brown (1.8%) and Chris Jones (0.9%).

So, based on the above, we’re looking at the Chiefs by 2-3, Mahomes for MVP, and less than 60 total points. 

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