The Baseball Hall of Fame projects to induct three players on BBWAA ballots

The members of the Baseball Writers Association of America who are voting on the 2025 Hall of Fame class have cast their ballots. Not all votes will be made public (present company included), or included in Ryan Thibodaux's indispensible ballot tracker.

Ninety-two ballots — a bit less than one-fourth of the final number expected to be cast — are now public. Based on that sample, Jason Sardell is projecting a Hall of Fame class of three (plus or minus two) new members.

The three likely inductees:

• First-year candidate Ichiro Suzuki. The outfielder's name has been checked on all 92 known ballots so far.

• CC Sabathia, another first-year candidate. The pitcher's name has been checked on 83 of the 92 known ballots (90.2 percent)

• Billy Wagner, who's in his 10th and final year of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot. The pitcher's name has been checked on 78 of the 92 ballots (84.8 percent)

Ichiro is as close to a lock as they come. Thibodaux estimates he'll need to be on 67.2 percent of the unknown ballots to make it in. Considering his credentials — 10 All-Star teams, 10 Gold Glove awards, a Rookie of the Year award, MVP award, 3,089 hits in MLB plus another 1,278 in Japan — you can bet the farm on Ichiro being the first native Japanese speaker to prepare a Hall of Fame induction speech.

Sabathia is less than a 100 percent certainty, but not by much. Sardell projects he'll clear the 75 percent threshold necessary for induction comfortably (89 percent), Wagner a bit less so (83 percent). Just don't expect Wagner to read this or any article about his chances.

Sardell's projection gives two other players an outside shot at induction this year: outfielders Carlos Beltran (72 percent) and Andruw Jones (70 percent) are polling closer to Cooperstown this year than ever. They'll need to pick up the pace to make the Hall of Fame podium this year. If not, both will get another chance next year.

The Hall of Fame voting results will be announced Jan. 21. If Ichiro is a unanimous selection, he'll be only the second ever (joining Mariano Rivera).

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