The Big Lead

The Mets and Braves play a doubleheader on Monday to determine these wildcard clinch scenarios

By Chris Pirrone

Jul 28, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud (16) and New York Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor (15)
Jul 28, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud (16) and New York Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor (15) / Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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The Major League Baseball regular season is not over yet!

The playoff brackets are almost complete—save for the final two NL wild-card teams.

On Sunday, the Braves needed either a victory or a Diamondbacks loss in order to clinch a postseason berth. The Braves couldn't pull out a win, losing 4-2 to the Kansas City Royals at Truist Park, while the D-backs’ pummeled the already playoff-bound San Diego Padres 11-2.

Now, Atlanta must play a doubleheader against the Mets on Monday to determine which two of the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks will make the playoffs.

The Mets and Braves will both enter Monday’s doubleheader at Truist Park needing just one win to secure one of the two available Wild Card entries. Both clubs would gain a spot with a split. But the D-backs would get in if either team is swept.

MONDAY'S N.L. WILD CARD CLINCH SCENARIOS:

  • Mets/Braves split the doubleheader: Mets and Braves both clinch a wild card spot
  • Braves win both: Braves and D-backs clinch
  • Mets win both: Mets and D-backs clinch

If the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader, the Braves would be the No. 5 seed and play the Padres, while the Mets would be the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers.

If either team sweeps the doubleheader, that club would earn the No. 5 seed and play the Padres, while the Diamondbacks would sneak into the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers. The team that was swept would be eliminated.

Monday's Starting Pitchers

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach.
Sep 7, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

In the Monday opener, the Braves will start rookie sensation Spencer Schwellenbach, who has allowed one run over 14 innings against the Mets and has a 1.79 ERA in the seven starts he has made against NL playoff contenders.

The Mets will send Tylor Megill to the mound in the early session. Megill is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA this year, but has compiled a 1.80 ERA and 4.95 WHIP with 22 strikeouts over 20 innings in September.

New York Mets starting pitcher Tylor Megill
Jun 11, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Tylor Megill / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

If the Braves aren't successful in the early game, they will need to start Chris Sale in the afternoon session. Sale, who has had a tremendous year, needs just four strikeouts and to maintain an ERA under 2.39 to become the first pitcher to win MLB’s Triple Crown since Johan Santana in 2007. The Mets have not disclosed who they will start in Game 2.

The Braves hope to win the opener to keep Sale available to start Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, which would be played in San Diego against the Padres on Tuesday.

While there is the chance for high drama between two franchises that historically do not like one another, it's more likely that even if both teams try their best in the first game of the doubleheader, the winner will put forth minimal effort in the nightcap since they will have nothing to play for. In other words, bet on the split :).

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