Who are the College Football Playoff bubble teams?
By Max Weisman
After a Week 13 full of upsets in the SEC, the College Football Playoff bubble opened up and as we head into the final week of the regular season, let's take a look at the teams on the bubble, ones who need a win on Saturday.
First, the teams that will make the playoff, provided they take care of business on Saturday, are Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Tennessee, Indiana and Boise State (assuming they win the Mountain West Championship). That leaves four spots.
Notice that Texas isn't on that list. The biggest game this weekend is one more than a decade in the making. The last time Texas and Texas A&M shared the same field was in 2011. The two teams are finally playing again due to Texas joining the SEC, and their first game back is huge. The winner of the first Lone Star Showdown in 13 years will go to the SEC Championship to play Georgia.
Texas isn't a lock for the playoff if they lose. The Longhorns' best win right now is against either Vanderbilt or Michigan. If A&M pulls the upset, Texas would fall right into the bubble with a 10-2 record. They'd likely get the committee's benefit of the doubt, though, and get an at-large bid. A&M, with three losses on the season already, would need to win the SEC Championship to get into the playoff if they beat Texas on Saturday. College Gameday will be at Kyle Field for the rivalry's renewal.
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Another huge game this weekend will take place in the Palmetto State between in-state rivals Clemson and South Carolina. The Tigers do not control their own destiny to make the ACC Championship, needing a Miami loss to Syracuse to play SMU in Charlotte. However, if they can beat South Carolina and finish 10-2, the Tigers might get one of those final at-large bids. South Carolina is also on the bubble and would need to beat Clemson to remain there, but at 9-3, they'd probably be a longshot to make the playoff.
The ACC is an interesting case. The conference champion will likely get a top-four seed in the playoff, but the conference championship game loser will be planted right on the bubble. If Miami or SMU lose in the ACC Championship, they'll be 11-2, a record good enough to get into the playoff as a 9-12 seed. If it's Clemson, the Tigers would be 10-3, and the committee would have to make a tough decision between them and likely the Big 12 Championship game loser.
Speaking of the Big 12, Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado are all 6-2 in conference play. Arizona State and Iowa State control their own destinies to make the championship game, needing just a win on Saturday. A two-loss Big 12 champion would get into the CFP but might be ranked fifth out of the top five conference champions, meaning they wouldn't automatically get a top-four seed.
All four of those teams in the Big 12 are on the bubble, even though the winner will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Not all is lost for the loser, however. Unless it's Colorado, the loser of the Big 12 Championship will still have 10 wins, which would put them at least in consideration for an at-large bid. Due to their loss to Kansas on Saturday, the Buffaloes probably need to win the Big 12 to make the playoff.
Let's recap: There are currently four spots CFP spots for bubble teams to fill, but that number will drop to three if Texas beats Texas A&M. Currently, the bubble consists of Texas A&M, Clemson, South Carolina, Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado. Texas and Miami could be added to the list with a loss on Saturday, and any loss by a Big 12 team or Texas A&M would drop them from the bubble. Isn't College Football awesome?
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