Why the 2024 Rookie of the Year award winners matter
Two starting pitchers won Rookie of the Year awards in their respective leagues Monday. Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees were not unanimous selections, but they recorded a clean sweep at a position that hasn't produced two Rookies of the Year in the same season since 1981.
It's been a tougher slog in the American League than the National for rookie starters. Part of that is luck, part of that is likely the presence of the designated hitter, which for years gave AL pitchers deeper lineups to navigate — a decided disadvantage for all starters, not merely rookies. The NL finally adopted the DH rule prior to the 2022 season.
The last AL starting pitcher to win the award was Michael Fulmer in 2016. The last NL starter to win was Jacob deGrom in 2014. The only pitcher to win the award in either league since was Milwaukee Brewers reliever Devin Williams in 2020.
Although I have submitted end-of-year awards votes in the past via the Baseball Writers' Association of America, I did not have a ballot this year. If I had, I likely would have voted for Skenes, and perhaps Gil as well.
My reasoning goes beyond the two pitchers' merits. Voters have been slow to adjust their priors when it comes to the innings limits typically afforded young pitchers in today's game. Rookie pitchers just don't pitch as much as they used to.
In four seasons since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, only three rookies have pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title. In the four years prior to 2020, 10 rookie pitchers qualified. I could be wrong, but I think this had real consequences for Rookie of the Year award voting.
The 2022 NL Rookie of the Year race, for example, pitted Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Strider against a teammate, center fielder Michael Harris. Harris had an outstanding season compared to other rookie hitters (.297/.339/.514) and was an asset in center field for the 101-win Braves.
Strider was on another level. On a per-inning basis, he was in a conversation with a handful of elite closers (and deGrom, who missed much of the season with an elbow injury) as the best in the league: a 2.67 ERA, 0.995 WHIP, and 202 strikeouts in a mere 131.2 innings.
Because of that innings total, however, Strider didn't appear on the standard sortable leaderboards — FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, MLB.com — for which starters need a minimum of 162 innings to qualify. He still did well enough in the final vote. Harris finished with 134 points (on the 5-3-1 voting scale), while Strider finished with 103. In a different year, with different voters, perhaps the two sort out in a different order.
But my hunch is that if teams weren't so petrified of injuries, and limiting rookies' innings as a result, we wouldn't have had to wait eight years between starting pitchers claiming a Rookie of the Year award in either league. Innings limits aren't necessarily a bad thing. Failing to adjust our voting standards as a result is.
The wins for Skenes and Gil, neither of whom were allowed to throw 162 innings this year, suggests voters have come around to the new normal.
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