Yankees' 8-year, $218M Max Fried contract a high-risk, high-reward move

The New York Yankees made their first big offseason splash of this winter on Tuesday, signing former Braves lefty Max Fried to a massive 8-year, $218 million contract, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. The contract has the most guaranteed money ever given to a lefty pitcher in MLB history, according to Passan.

And while the move could pay big dividends for New York, don't let the upside distract you from the fact that this deal carries a massive amount of risk, and doesn't make up for the megastar-sized hole in right field the Yankees are trying to fill.

When Fried's been healthy, he's been virtually lights out; his career ERA is just 3.07, and he's struck out 150 or more batters four times in his career. He came second in Cy Young voting in 2022, going 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA, and has looked the part of an ace since becoming a full-time starter in 2019. The idea of pairing Fried with Gerrit Cole at the top of New York's rotation should have fans in the Bronx very, very excited.

So what's the problem? The problems are two-fold. The first is health; Fried has spent at least a few weeks in every season of his career on the injured list, or being scratched from starts. He's had recurring issues with blisters every season of his career, and made just 11 starts in 2023 due to a variety of muscle injuries.

He's largely avoided the serious injury bug, but that brings us to the second issue with this contract, Fried's age. He'll be 31 next season when this deal starts, and as anyone who has turned 30 can tell you, once you hit that age, little injuries that might keep you out for a few days can turn into big injuries that keep you out for a few weeks or more.

It's clear that the Yankees have moved on to Plan B after losing the Juan Soto sweepstakes to the Mets, and signing Fried to this kind of contract is certainly the kind of splash they needed to make after swinging and missing on Soto. Fried is a risk, but he's a necessary one, and the kind of risk that carries massive amounts of upside for the Yankees, who could have one of the best one-two combos in the majors next season.

But it doesn't fix the biggest problem in New York: the lineup.

Outside of Aaron Judge, who scares you in the Yankees' lineup? Giancarlo Stanton still hits bombs, but he pairs them with an ever-increasing number of strikeouts with each passing year, and that assumes he's healthy. Anthony Volpe looks like the shortstop of the future to be sure, but his career .228 average and 12 home runs last season don't scream "offensive juggernaut" at this point. Outfielder Jasson Dominguez has as much hype as any Yankee prospect in recent memory, but until he proves he can hit in the majors, it's nothing more than that. Jazz Chisholm was maddeningly inconsistent last year after putting on the pinstripes, and there's still no viable first baseman on the roster to speak of (unless you play D.J. LeMahieu at first, which then leaves a hole at third).

There's still plenty of time for the Yankees to patch those holes and build themselves back into contention, and Fried will likely be a big part of that path forward, especially in the early seasons of this contract.

But make no mistake: he's no Juan Soto, and the Yankees still need to find soneone who can be if they hope to return to the World Series again anytime soon.

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Yankees' 8-year, $218M Max Fried contract a high-risk, high-reward move after Juan Soto miss

By Sam Westmoreland | Dec 10, 2024