It's the Colts. And Peyton Manning. Stop Acting Like the Jets Are the Superior Team or Might Win
By Jason McIntyre
1. There’s a myth floating around that because Indianapolis is 25th in the league against the run (127 ypg) that the Jets’ (4th in the league running the ball) will be able to have much success with Tomlinson and Greene. Here’s what nobody’s paying attention to: After Chris Johnson rushed for 111 yards against Indy in early December, here’s what the Colts defense has done against the run:
Jacksonville (3rd in the league rushing): 22 carries, 67 yards
Oakland (2nd in the league rushing): 22 carries, 80 yards
Tennessee: 24 carries, 51 yards.
These were all in games Indy had to have to get into the playoffs. PEOPLE, WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THE FUCKING COLTS! THEY’VE BEEN AN ELITE TEAM IN THE NFL FOR A DECADE. To think LT and Greene are going to go nuts is laughable.
Tamme has had an unlikely run in the last nine weeks – 63 catches, 595 yards, four TDs. Who defends him? It better be a safety, such as Dwight Lowery, Eric Smith, or Brodney Pool. But that leaves the linebackers like Bart Scott or David Harris for the running backs (Joseph Addai, Donald Brown). And that’s bad news.
3. I don’t have many concerns about the offense. I’m assuming offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got the November memo about saving his job, which he appeared to do with great play-calling against Pittsburgh and Chicago. Sanchez is not a concern (Very nice of occasional sparring partner Bill Barnwell to make mention of Mark Sanchez just starting for one year at USC. That was my main beef with the Sanchez/Russell hatchet job last year before the AFC Championship game) and despite some rough moments – who doesn’t have those in their first two years? – he’s the least of my worries. The major offensive concerns are the RBs fumbling and the WRs dropping passes. Seems basic, but if you watched this team this year, they always seem to happen at the worst time (see Green Bay loss and Miami loss).
If the Jets’ win, it’ll be because of the defense. Cromartie will have to contain Garcon. The front seven, maligned much of the season, will need to pressure Manning. They’ve actually had some success down the stretch (excluding the Buffalo game, since nobody played):
vs. Miami: 6 sacks, 4 Forced fumbles
vs. Pittsburgh: 3 sacks, 2 Forced Fumbles
vs. Chicago: 2 sacks
The problem is that those numbers are deceptive because the pass rush remains anemic most of the time. Manning will target the weak links (Coleman, Cromartie, the safeties) and expose the shit out of them.
Guess: Indianapolis 30, Jets 20. And no, the Jets’ loss will not be a step backward as a franchise because they made it to the AFC title game last year. (If the Jets matched up against KC and lost that game, I might say that.)
Other picks:
Philadelphia 24, Green Bay 20
New Orleans 27, Seattle 13
Kansas City 17, Baltimore 13