Road to the College Football Playoff: Florida State vs. Notre Dame
By Ty Duffy
Florida State vs. Notre Dame: a matchup that jacks up television networks. This game has some veritable history behind it. It is a top five matchup between undefeateds. It is a potential playoff elimination game. FSU can’t construct much of a top four argument without a Notre Dame win. The Irish would be battling uphill without beating FSU. While both teams are in a prime position, neither has impressed in victory so far.
The Seminoles have struggled with injuries. They have looked more pedestrian than most anticipated along both lines. On offense, they have largely abandoned the run, ranking 69th in yards/carry and 110th in carries/game. Pass protection, 90th in sacks allowed, has also been an issue. On defense, Florida State ranks 41st in yards/carry allowed and 63rd in yards/pass allowed. This is a team ranked 1st in yards/play offense and a narrow second in yards/play defense last season. The Seminoles keep winning, but have looked vulnerable and fortunate to play in the ACC.
Notre Dame just has not done much, since deflating a bad Michigan team at home. The Irish could not pull away from average Purdue and Syracuse teams in neutral sites. They gutted out a win against a great Stanford defense at home. They followed that by getting caught out in a predictable letdown spot against North Carolina. How does ranking 48th in yards/play offense and 40th in yards/play defense translate against a capable opponent? We’ll see.
As the almighty #narrative dictates, we must mention the quarterback battle. Everett Golson took an extended vacation after a cheating scandal. Jameis Winston has been a pariah and perpetual distraction, since not being charged with sexual assault. Both happen to be very good football players, though, which will be all that is relevant on Saturday.
Golson got off to a hot start. He has made some excellent throws. But, his efficiency has diminished the past few weeks. He has thrown four interceptions the past three games and completed only 50 percent of his passes the last two. A win here could vault him in the Heisman race.
Winston has hit his first season heights. It’s not clear whether that’s him or instability around him. His completion percentage has improved, though he’s averaging 8.9 yards/attempt vs. 10.6 in 2013. Winston may not be Heisman material, though he somehow was last year.
Florida State appears capable of more and has not shown it. We’re not sure how much Notre Dame is capable of.
Picks
We went 6-0 last week, putting us at 26-10-1 ATS on the season. The correction is inevitable. Until then, we will toot away.
Florida State (-11.5) vs. Notre Dame… The Irish do the little things. What else do they do particularly well? What do they do to assert themselves against a more talented, more athletic Florida State team? Who wins a one on one matchup and makes a big play? Notre Dame is playing its first real road game, after chasing North Carolina around last week and being banged up by Stanford the week before. Jameis create distractions. He’s also notably unfazed by them. Roll Seminoles.
Alabama (-13.5) vs. Texas A&M… Alabama came out flat against Arkansas. The Aggies are trying to regroup after consecutive Magnolia State thumpings. Here’s what we know. Texas A&M cannot stop the run or the pass. Alabama can do both. A&M won’t be able to run against the Tide. Their passing game has dipped notably since they started facing actual opponents. We’d never place expectations on Alabama, but they should cover this spread in Tuscaloosa.
West Virginia (+7.5) vs Baylor… This game featured in our 2014 trap game list, which remains undefeated. Baylor is primed for a letdown, following an emotional comeback against TCU. The Bears tend to struggle on the road. This is one of the few substantial travel games in the Big 12. West Virginia is battle tested and was a tough out against both Alabama and Oklahoma. The past two meetings between Briles and Holgorsen produced oodles of points. Take them in a shootout.
Indiana (+15) vs. Michigan State… Michigan State has a good defense, not a great one. The Spartans rank outside the Top 30 in yards/play allowed. They have had major problems finishing off games against teams with a pulse. They have given up some long runs this year, which is not an optimal trend facing Tevin Coleman. Indiana averaged 27.5 points against the great Spartan units the past two seasons. The Spartans are looking ahead, to the playoff. The Hoosiers are down to a third-string quarterback named Zander. Vegas does not seem overly concerned.
Colorado (+19) at USC… The Buffaloes aren’t there yet. But, they are competitive and their offense produces. Colorado has regrouped after a bye week. USC has a shallow depth chart and is coming off two up tempo offenses. In both games, the Trojans gave up double-digit points in the fourth quarter. USC is talented, but we don’t trust their young players or coaching staff to make second half adjustments and put this game on ice.
Texas (-12.5) vs. Iowa State… Neither team has a great offense. Texas has a much better defense. The Longhorns rank 4th nationally allowing 4.29 yards/play. That is after facing Baylor and Oklahoma the past two weeks, not to mention a full-strength BYU rushing attack. Iowa State ranks 81st. Texas is not as bad as the public believes. They should have knocked off Oklahoma last week. They do hook the Cyclones at home.
Rutgers (+21.5) at Ohio State… Ohio State has rebounded from the Virginia Tech loss. They should have facing Kent State, Cincinnati and Maryland. Rutgers can generate pressure up front. The Scarlet Knights attack the quarterback from multiple directions. They are averaging four sacks per game. Has that Buckeye line truly blossomed? Setting aside the Penn State dumpster fire, the Scarlet Knights have averaged more than 10 yards/attempt in every game. Ohio State’s secondary has allowed four pass plays for longer than 60 yards already this season.
SMU (+13) vs. Cincinnati… The Mustangs have looked spectacularly terrible. Much of that is because four of their five opponents this year have been Baylor, TCU, Texas A&M and East Carolina, all ranked No. 21 or higher. SMU may just be normal bad. The Bearcats hit the road for the third time in four weeks. Their defense conceded at least 600 total yards the last three games. That’s a lot of points for this crew to cover on the road.