Road to the College Football Playoff: Ole Miss vs. Auburn, Big 12 and Pac 12 Showdowns
By Ty Duffy
The College Football playoff continues to enhance the regular season. This week, to our shock and amazement, more elimination games!
Ole Miss vs. Auburn… These darn SEC West teams keep playing each other, PAWL! Do they unduly benefit from established perception in the ranking system? Sure. But, we’ll buy your overrated argument when someone from another conference beats them.
Ole Miss is reeling after a tough loss to LSU last week. Auburn hits the road again, after losing to Mississippi State and nearly losing to Kansas State. The loser will likely be out of the playoff hunt, however deserving a 10-2 Auburn may be against a hellacious schedule.
These teams seem to cancel each other out. When Auburn has struggled, it has been with turnovers and not completing scoring drives. An early meltdown left the Tigers with a steep uphill battle in Starkville. Auburn’s offense scored three touchdowns on nine red zone trips against MSU and KSU. Ole Miss is the best defense in the nation at forcing turnovers and stalling drives in the red zone. Auburn’s defense can be undone by big plays through the air. Ole Miss has Bo Wallace, in the midst of a harsh regression to the mean.
West Virginia vs. TCU… Gary Patterson has a full arsenal. Dana Holgorsen has a quarterback. Neither team was taken seriously preseason. Both have a legit chance to win the Big 12. TCU, with wins this week and next week vs. Kansas State, would be destined for 11-1 and a probable playoff place. The Horned Frogs are the more well-rounded team. TCU’s defense, barring the obligatory Big 12 firebombings, is among the Big 12’s best. Their offense just dropped 82 on Swagger Kliff with the handbrake engaged. However, you can never count out Dana Holgorsen in a Red Bull froth and Morgantown is a place where things can get weird.
The Pac 12 South… Oregon looks like the Pac 12’s only viable playoff contender. But, three one-loss teams in the South remain in the mix, technically. Two, Utah and Arizona State, play this weekend. The third, Arizona, is a dog on the road at UCLA. Both games kick off after 10:30pm ET, because of course they do. Utah still plays Stanford and Oregon. Arizona has the best win, at Oregon, but has been skating by in one-score games. The best bet, concerning the playoff, may be Arizona State.
Starting QB Taylor Kelly is back. The Sun Devils beat Stanford and would not play Oregon until the title game. Beating a Top 10 Notre Dame at home would wash away the stink from their loss to UCLA. Not probable, but some high octane playoff action remains, at this point, possible.
Picks
We bounced back with a 3-2 mark last week, bringing out picks to 31-18-1 ATS on the season. Here are the games we like this week.
Florida (+10.5) vs. Georgia… Perception of these teams is skewed, a bit. Georgia has played a weaker schedule. The Gators experienced a turnover apocalypse vs. Missouri. The Bulldogs benefited from one. Florida’s offense is a disaster area, but their defense is legit. Georgia attacks them with a one-dimensional offense sans Todd Gurley. Teams that have gained traction against the Gators this year played fast. The Bulldogs are one of the SEC’s slowest teams. Double-digit points in a rivalry game? We’ll take it. Double-digit points against Mark Richt outside Athens? We’ll definitely take it.
Stanford (+8) at Oregon… Stanford has the nation’s best statistical defense, one specifically designed to neutralize Oregon. The Cardinal’s disruptive front is a bad matchup for a Ducks line that has been banged up and not very effective. Marcus Mariota is awesome, but notably less proficient against defenses that can get to him. We’re not fans of David Shaw’s conservative play-calling. However, Oregon’s defense has quietly declined from 7th in yards/play allowed to 75th. Brains and braun is an excellent combination.
UCLA (-6.5) vs. Arizona… Rich Rod is having a resurgence. But Arizona is still overvalued. Their Washington State win was padded with two special teams touchdowns (thanks to the Cougars’ 126th ranked special teams). UCLA will be able to run on the Wildcats. Brett Hundley is a top-caliber quarterback when he has time to throw. The Bruins have underwhelmed, but have also had a tough schedule, considering opponent quality and traveling. Arizona gets swing-passed to death on the road.
North Carolina (+14.5) at Miami… This is way, way too many points for an ACC Coastal game. Miami is caught in a schedule sandwich. The Hurricanes are fresh off a huge win in Blacksburg. They face Florida State after the bye. UNC has been coming around. They played Notre Dame tough and gutted out wins against decent Georgia Tech and Virginia teams. Miami’s defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks. They aren’t especially poised to hit North Carolina for big plays through the air. Al Golden has to sweat this one out…more than usual.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. Duke… The Blue devils are a feel-good mirage. They have played no one out of conference. In ACC play, Duke ranks 13th in yards/play offense and 13th in yards/play defense. That’s not good. We’ll presume Pitt avoids fumbling the ball away on their 1st five drives this game. The Panthers should have no trouble moving the ball with James Conner. Paul Chryst gets a much-needed win to the delight of the half-empty NFL studium.
Michigan (-6.5) vs. Indiana… Dave Brandon is caput. Michigan stinks. Indiana is worse, and in a tough place. The Wolverines struggle in coverage. Indiana, down to a two-star true freshman at quarterback, has completed 12 passes combined their past two games. Michigan is a turnover factory. Indiana’s defense does not force them. Indiana depends on the running game. The one thing Michigan does proficiently is stop the run. The Wolverines get their first power five win by a touchdown in regulation since last year’s Indiana game.
[USA Today Sports]