5 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Does Anyone Care in Week 17?
By Jason McIntyre
Picking five NFL games against the spread each week is terribly difficult. We’re using lines from the Hilton SuperContest, and remember, 57 percent is considered good. CineSport’s Noah Coslov went 4-1 last week (!) and is 34-45-1 for the season. Jason went 3-2 to fall to 48-32*.
If Noah had only listened to himself … he would have had a perfect 5-0. But my brilliant argument against Cincinnati sold him last Friday, and he backed off the Bengals and took the Broncos.
That didn’t go so well. The loss cost me any shot at the Mini-Contest (last three weeks). With three people undefeated, I’d have had a tiny chance at 8-2. But at 7-3, it’ll take something of this magnitude.
Week 17 is a challenging one – who are we kidding, they’re all challenging – because only a handful of games matter, random QBs make out-of-nowhere starts (see Connor Shaw in Cleveland and Chase Daniel in Kansas City), and you never know who is pulling starters and when (Dallas, New England, Seattle, etc).
So the best move? Go with underdogs! Here are some trends from Oddshark.
After last year’s 42-41-1 mark, I felt improvement in the Supercontest, but six losing weeks is five too many. And four of them were 1-4 (including the start the year). If those four weeks move from a 4-16 to a 8-12 (all 2-3 rather than 1-4), I’m going into Week 17 with a shot at the money.
Sigh.
If you’re wondering how I have four more wins in these videos than in the Hilton Supercontest contest, I sadly explained the reasoning here.