College Football Playoff Semifinals: Can Alabama Win And Stay In?
By Ty Duffy
November has arrived. So have the College Football Playoff semifinals. There are three games between ranked opponents this weekend. The loser of each game is out, or, at best, facing a fierce uphill battle.
Florida State at Clemson
Clemson did not “Clemson.” They are No. 1 in the CFB Playoff rankings. They have been perhaps the nation’s most efficient team, on both sides of the ball. It’s hard to see them dropping a game other than Florida State. They host the one-loss Seminoles as a double-digit favorite. Does FSU have a chance?
Florida State has looked unspectacular, against a benign schedule. The Noles have played one team, Miami, with a winning record. Clemson does not offer much to exploit. They can give up yards through the air (if you complete the passes). They aren’t so great covering kick returns. That’s about it. The one Seminole trump card is running back Dalvin Cook.
Cook has broken big plays all season. He’s averaging 8.57 yards/touch on offense. Dabo Swinney offered the quote of the week, asserting he didn’t get past first base with Cook during the recruiting process. Clemson’s defense has pledged to “show him why he should have gone to Clemson.” Better Clemson calling players out than Auburn.
LSU at Alabama
LSU has lost to Alabama the last three years, twice by one score. When the Tigers beat them during an undefeated 2011 regular season, they had to play them again in the title game and lost 21-0. Les Miles’ team brings a perfect record into a game that will, again, define the Tigers’ season.
The college football world is waiting for one matchup. Leonard Fournette has been the nation’s best running back. He has run for at least 150 yards and scored at least one touchdown in every game this season. He will run into Alabama’s defensive front, the nation’s best run defense. Cutting out a late, meaningless Nick Chubb run, the Tide are holding opponents to 2.26 yards/carry.
These games can be close, so keep an eye on special teams. Neither team has covered itself in glory covering kick returns in 2015. Alabama has missed six field goals.
TCU at Oklahoma State
The Big 12 conference season begins. The Horned Frogs and Cowboys play their first true live opponents. It’s hard to know what to make of either team. Oklahoma State began 2015 under the radar. Pulling away from Texas Tech last week was their first multiple score conference win against a Power 5 team that was not Kansas.
TCU started as a playoff favorite and has not lost. But, the Horned Frogs have not impressed that much more than OSU, especially on the road. TCU labored in a one-score win against not-so-great Minnesota. They needed fourth quarter comebacks to get by not-so-great Kansas State and Texas Tech teams.
Both these teams bring the fireworks on offense. Balance may play in TCU’s favor. The Horned Frogs have strong pass defense numbers. Oklahoma State cannot run the ball.
Picks ATS
A 3-2 weekend brought these picks to 28-17 ATS this season. Here’s who I like for Week 10.
Nebraska (+5.5) vs. Michigan State: Few outside the Mitten are buying into Michigan State. This is the Spartans’ best opportunity for a non-Ohio State comeuppance, heading to Nebraska for a road night game. The Cornhuskers are a frustrated 3-6, with five one-score losses. Nebraska will attack MSU’s pass defense. Michigan State will run into the teeth of a strong Nebraska run defense more often than they should, because that’s just how they do things. Take the points.
Vanderbilt (+21) at Florida: A noon home game against Vandy is prime letdown territory, after a Georgia demolition. The Commodores took a Gatling gun to themselves with turnovers against Houston. Four Cougar touchdown drives were less than 40 yards. Vanderbilt still has an excellent defense. How sold are you on Florida’s offense? The Gators win, but not by more than three touchdowns.
West Virginia (-8.5) vs. Texas Tech: Man, West Virginia has looked crappy the past month. Here was their schedule with CFB playoff ranking: at Oklahoma (15), vs. Oklahoma State (14), at Baylor (6), at TCU (8). Yeah. The Mountaineers offer the Big 12’s toughest road trip. Texas Tech has, perhaps, the worst power five defense. I’ll follow some country roads and take a cheesed off Dana Holgorsen here.
Pitt (+8.5) vs. Notre Dame: Notre Dame hits the road for a second-straight week after a tough Temple game. Nine of the past 10 games in this series have been decided by one score. Pitt has a solid defense. the Irish have one that quietly concedes yards and points. Notre Dame has trailed in the 4th quarter of each road game it has played. I can’t trust the Irish to turn red zone trips into touchdowns. Give me the points.
Washington (-1) vs. Utah: Vegas feasts on inaccurate perception. Take Washington here. These teams have almost identical F/+ rankings. Washington has three one-score losses and a defeat at Stanford fielding a backup QB. Throw in some atrocious fumble luck (lost 13/18 this season). The Huskies are a bad matchup for Utah. Washington has a stout run defense. The Utes can’t pass. Jake Browning should have opportunities to exploit a soft Utah pass defense.