Our picks went 2-3 last week, hitting on Oregon State and Northwestern. That dropped us to 15-19-1 ATS on the season. Onward and, hopefully, upward. Use or fade how you will.
Auburn (-9.5) vs. Arkansas
The Razorbacks enter overhyped from last week. Auburn is a bad matchup. They have a very good defense, which should slow down Arkansas. The Razorbacks can’t stop the run, which benefits Auburn. Unlike Arkansas, the Tigers have been solid on third downs, on both sides of the ball. Auburn is at home off a bye week. Arkansas is hitting the road after two tough games. We’ll hop on the Gus Bus.
Iowa (+3.5) vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin played admirably against Michigan and Ohio State. The Badgers also lost both games and may be a bit overvalued. Iowa is gearing up for its biggest game of the season thus far. Wisconsin is heading on the road in a let down spot after a tough loss. The Badgers’ offense isn’t explosive. They don’t finish drives in the end zone. These are the sorts of games Kirk Ferentz finds borderline erotic. Iowa keeps it within a field goal.
Kansas State (-3) vs. Texas
The Longhorns solved all of their problems against Iowa State last week, right? Yeah, probably not. Kansas State plays excellent run defense. That run defense has been tested against some of the nation’s most explosive running backs. That’s not great news for Texas who want to run all over teams with D’Onta Foreman and double down with the infamous “18-wheeler package.” Well-coached Kansas State figures out where to exploit Texas’ defense at home.
Oregon (+3) vs. California
The Ducks had a merciful bye week to regroup after four-straight losses. Don’t get too down on them. Oregon has one of the nation’s best running games. Cal ranks dead last, 128th, in yards/carry against. The Ducks’ run defense is terrible too, but that won’t be as much of an issue against a team that throws it 50 times per game. Oregon wins a shootout.
UMass (+20.5) at South Carolina
This is a look-ahead game for South Carolina with Tennessee on deck. The Gamecocks, with no exaggeration, may have the worst P5 offense. They have not scored 21 points in a game this season. UMass has not been as abject as their record indicates. They are sound. They are competitive. They were in one-score games with Mississippi State and Florida in the fourth quarter. UMass keeps it reasonable.