NFL Musings, Week 7: Bill Belichick Remains the Best, as Evidenced by Pass-Happy Record vs the Jets

Bill Belichick does not believe in “establishing the run,” wasting rush attempts just for the sake of getting something established. Against the Jets’ strong defensive front, and with Dion Lewis out, he simply put the ball in Tom Brady’s hands over and over and over as New England held on to win 30-23 in Foxboro and remain undefeated.

Tom Brady threw the ball 54 times, and was sacked three other times. New England Patriots ran the ball 5 times with running backs, for 1 total yard (Brady had 4 official rush attempts). What is remarkable about this is that it was not a game where the Patriots overcame a significant deficit. From start to finish, the Patriots just opted to pass against the Jets.

It was the highest ratio of passes to runs in NFL history, going back to at least 1960. Here are the most pass-heavy victories of the last 65 years. (source: pro-football-reference.com)

The Patriots appear on the list twice, just from this year. The 2007 team also did it against the Steelers’ defense. On a day when the Jets showed again that they are real playoff contenders, Belichick simply refused to give in to the Jets and waste carries. On the final drive, leading by a field goal, in a situation many coaches would have run the ball, the Patriots threw it 9 times in 10 plays, including Brady hitting Rob Gronkowski for the decisive touchdown.

The Colts Get Embarrassed at Home, Still Lead the AFC South

The Indianapolis Colts will probably make the playoffs as the AFC South representative. They are now 3-0 against Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston, and 0-4 against the rest of the NFL, after a home loss to the New Orleans Saints after they fell behind 27-0.

Indianapolis has been outscored 67-21 in the first half of those four losses, getting shutout until 54 seconds left in the 3rd quarter against the Bills, 10:07 of the 4th quarter against the Jets, and 3:42 left in the 3rd quarter against the Saints.

The owner and GM are exchanging words, and the situation between the GM and coach is pretty dysfunctional in Indianapolis. Andrew Luck is playing poorly, and trying to come back from the shoulder injury that kept him out of the two wins over Jacksonville and Houston. Thank goodness for the four-team division champ getting a home game format. This feels like first to 7 definitely wins the division, and 6 may be enough.

Goal-Setting on the Goal Line Is Important

Week 7 saw plenty of key swings on the goal line that either swung a game or made it far more interesting than it should have been. Kirk Cousins was fired up after Washington’s big come-from-behind win, but it would not have been possible had the Bucs not squandered the opportunity to put it away on the goal line just a few minutes earlier.

Tampa Bay had 1st and goal from the 5 with 4 minutes left, up 3. It felt like the game, and a Doug Martin run to the 2, followed by a 1-yard gain, set up 3rd and goal from the 1. Washington shot through to stop Charles Sims for a 2-yard loss, and the Bucs settled for the very short field goal to make it a 6-point game. Should they have considered going for it anyway? The marginal difference between putting the game away, and being up 3 vs 6, favors going, but it would take some guts. In the end, Tampa lost a game where they outgunned Washington by 124 yards, and part of that hidden loss is in settling for two field goals inside the 5 yard line.

They weren’t the only team that had adventures on the goal line. Detroit trailed Minnesota by 9 when they got a 2nd and goal from the 1 after Calvin Johnson’s play (that could have been ruled a touchdown).

Detroit failed to score on the next three plays, in what proved decisive. The Lions got the ball back and into Vikings’ territory before time ran out. A touchdown on the goal line would have had them kicking for the win.

Atlanta, meanwhile, kept the Titans in it when they failed to score on the goal line. Julio Jones was ruled not to have scored at the goal line, and Matt Ryan threw a 4th and 1 interception in the end zone with the Falcons leading 10-7. A Matt Bryant missed field goal also kept it close, but Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger could not make Atlanta pay for its sloppiness.

Then there’s the most awe-inspiring sequence, that will be forgotten because (a) it was on Sunday morning, (b) it involved the Jags and Bills, and (c) the Jaguars came back to win. With first and goal from the 1, already leading 27-13, Jacksonville did this.

Four straight Toby Gerhart carries for no gain. Buffalo would come back to actually take a lead at 31-27, before Jacksonville scored a late touchdown to escape embarrassment after leading 27-3. From my research, which has plays back to 1994, I can’t find any other sequence where a team failed to score on four straight plays to the same player from the one-yard line. In fact, Gerhart is now tied for 2nd since 1994 in failed runs from the one-yard line, behind only LaDainian Tomlinson’s 7. That it came in one short stretch in London is amazing.

Tannehill Sets Record, Houston Continues Terrible Stretch

Ryan Tannehill, officially, was 19 of 20 passing yesterday against Houston (two incompletions were wiped out by defensive penalty). He set a NFL record for consecutive completions.

He also matched Randall Cunningham in 1998 with three long touchdown passes.

Wait, maybe long isn’t the right word. This wasn’t Cunningham to Randy Moss. Tannehill hit Rishard Matthews on a short slant, passed to Jarvis Landry on an out that turned into a race across the field the opposite way against the entire Texans’ defense, and threw a screen pass to Lamar Miller. Altogether, the three 50+ yard passes traveled a combined 16 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Houston’s safety play– and the play of their defense– was dreadful. My goodness, the touchdowns that Miami scored were embarrassing. The 41-0 halftime deficit was only 4 points shy of the largest deficit of all-time, the Patriots over the Titans in 2009, 45-0 at half. And that game was played in a snowstorm.

Tannehill had 4 completions that resulted in a (non-TD) first down in the first half, and 4 touchdowns. That’s hard to do.

Backup QBs Go Winless and Get Generous

Not that it’s ever really a day to be down to your backup at quarterback, but Sunday was not fruitful for teams going into the bench at the position. The Bills and Steelers were both playing teams with one win entering Sunday, but lost with E.J. Manuel and Landry Jones playing QB. Zach Mettenberger had to play in place of Marcus Mariota, and the Titans managed 7 points. Dallas went with Matt Cassel instead of Brandon Weeden while Tony Romo is still out, and he joined the turnover party.

All told, those four quarterbacks combined to throw 9 interceptions on 133 pass attempts, two of which were returned for touchdowns.

NO-HUDDLE ATTACK

St. Louis 24, Cleveland 6: Todd Gurley is the Rams’ offense, and that was enough on a day that Josh McCown got beaten up.

Oakland 37, San Diego 29: Oakland jumped all over San Diego on the road, before Philip Rivers completed a bajillion passes in the fourth quarter to make the score look closer. The Raiders are now in 2nd in the AFC West and a half-game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC.

Carolina 27, Philadelphia 16: Chip Kelly wants you to talk to Duce Staley about why Ryan Matthews didn’t play more.