USA Copa America Preview: In Klinsmann We Trust?

Copa America Centenario kicks off with USA vs. Colombia, at fortress Levi’s Stadium. If you said this was the toughest, most important competition the USMNT will face before the 2018 World Cup, you would be correct. If you said this was a cynical, sort of meaningless cash grab by American federations, you also would be correct.

The U.S., hosting, are third favorites to win the tournament. How will the boys in black, red, and blue (or perhaps white with blue cap sleeves) fare? We take a look.

The Jurgen Narrative

U.S. Soccer hired Jurgen Klinsmann in 2011. He promised to forge an American soccer identity. He wanted more technical, proactive play. He wanted a broader definition of “American,” incorporating German and Hispanic players with eligibility. He got the latter. The former? Not so much.

Rather than describe U.S. play is “proactive,” we’d say it is “open.” There are more ambitious forays forward. But, those have come with corresponding calamity at the back. The USMNT has produced some of its best results under Klinsmann, and some of its most alarming.

Does Klinsmann know what he’s doing? It’s a debate. He’s not known for his tactical acumen. Former charge Philipp Lahm ripped him for doing very little on that front. But, Klinsmann told the WSJ he doesn’t laden players with bullet points because players “need to drive their own bullet points.” Players win tournaments. As a national team coach, much of their maturation is beyond his control.

Klinsmann gets ripped for his constant, fruitless meddling. There’s little continuity. There does not seem to be a coherent plan. Players don’t appear comfortable with their roles or with one another. That said, international friendlies exist for experimentation. Inertia and reasonable effort should carry the U.S. through qualification. What matters is major tournaments. It’s hard to fault Klinsmann there (the Gold Cup is not “major”).

Criticism of Klinsmann’s meddling suggests there is a clear solution he’s not finding. That may not exist. Many younger U.S. players have stalled and faltered. U.S. club play is at perhaps its lowest ebb in the professional era. The U.S. has one midfielder/forward who played in a top four European league last season. That’s Christian Pulisic, age 17. International teammates twice his age enjoying semi-retirement have not been wrested from the starting XI. In short, this team just may not be that good.

Klinsmann has not forged an American soccer identity as he intended. But, he did channel the extant one in Brazil. The U.S. does not have stars. It has dedicated professionals. When American soccer works, players are resilient. They are relentless. They play with a chip honed from having to work for everything. They keep things tight and annoy even the best of opponents.

The U.S. 2014 World Cup campaign style was ugly, but it was American. It got the U.S. out of the group and a Chris Wondolowski finish away from the quarterfinals. Can he find that magic again? Perhaps.

The Squad

Goalkeeper is settled. Brad Guzan has supplanted Tim Howard as No. 1 goalkeeper. He had a rough year at Aston Villa. So did everyone at Aston Villa. But, he has been solid for the national team. He has the capability to play at the top level. Certainty should breed confidence.

In the outfield, Klinsmann has been settling the team into a 4-3-3 formation. The back four looks like it will be John Brooks and Geoff Cameron in central defense, with DeAndre Yedlin and Fabian Johnson at right and left back respectively.

The U.S. will have a bank of three central midfielders. Michael Bradley has been featuring in a deeper, anchor role. Jermaine Jones should play alongside him box to box, for at least 60 minutes. The third member affords Klinsmann flexibility. That can be a more attacking player, a more defensive one, or one better at set pieces as needed.

Up front, Jozy Altidore suffered yet another hamstring injury. He’s out for the tournament. Expect Klinsmann to at least start with two quick players (Bobby Wood, Gyasi Zardes) on the wings, hopefully creating space for Clint Dempsey to do Clint Dempsey stuff in the middle.

The Americans won’t control the midfield or dominate possession. What they have is speed. The hope is you get the ball to your most creative player, Michael Bradley, early and he can spring someone running into space. It’s not a full proof plan. But, it has logic.

The Opposition

Colombia: Colombia tends to be really good, or really irrelevant. They were the most exciting team at the 2014 World Cup. They were awful at 2015 Copa America, scoring one goal in four matches and losing to Venezuela. They are currently in fifth-place in CONMEBOL qualifying after six matches. Colombia are dynamic going forward with the triumvirate of James Rodriguez, Juan Cuadrado and Carlos Bocca. They are also inexperienced and leaky at the back.

Costa Rica: Similar story to Colombia. The Ticos made an impressive, unexpected run to the quarterfinals of the 2014 World Cup. Then, they did not win a match at the 2015 Gold Cup. Costa Rica have capable firepower up front, but their star, goalkeeper Keylor Navas, is out for the tournament. The Costa Ricans are a familiar opponent for the U.S. and a familiar problem. The Americans have won just two of their nine meetings since 2005.

Paraguay: Paraguay reached the semifinals of the 2015 Copa America, albeit while winning one match in regulation (1-0 vs. Jamaica). They are currently 7th in CONMEBOL qualifying. But for a few veterans, they have rebooted the squad. Sixteen of the 23-man squad have fewer than 20 caps, including the entire midfield. Nine have fewer than 10.

Outlook

“Group of Death” may be putting things strongly. But, the U.S. drew the toughest 1-4 group in the tournament. All four are among the top 10 favorites. Colombia, by whatever measure, is ranked as one of the top international sides in the world. Costa Rica and Paraguay have a similar stature to the U.S. There is no team the U.S. cannot compete with and beat. There is no team that cannot beat the U.S.

Klinsmann set a goal for the U.S. to reach the semifinal. Get through the group. Do what they have not done on the world stage in a while: win a knockout game. Setting that goal flies against boundless American optimism. But, it’s realistic.

Much depends on how the U.S. finishes. Winning Group A would set up the second-place finisher in Group B, likely Ecuador/Haiti/Peru. That would be winnable, before a semifinal date with Argentina/Mexico/Uruguay.

Qualifying second from Group A earns the U.S. a showdown with Brazil. This is an undermanned Brazil team absent multiple stars, most notably Neymar. But, it’s still a Brazil team more capable than a full-strength U.S. team.

Americans will “believe that we will win,” hope for the soccer moon shot, and pray young Christian Pulisic asserts himself as the second coming of Lionel Messi. But, in reality, not getting embarrassed at home would do much to calm the waters around Klinsmann and set up a solid foundation to build for 2018.