Ranking the Top 10 Football Teams In The Big 12 from Worst to First

We were planning on ranking the top 12 teams in the Big 12, but it turns out there aren’t that many teams in the Big 12. There are only 10. And this is something the Big 12 brags about. It likes to say that because it only has 10 teams, that means every Big 12 team plays every other Big 12 team every year, creating a balanced and superior schedule resulting in “one true champion.”

This year, as in most others, the clear favorite to be that champion is Oklahoma. But TCU is on quite a run the last few years, and has plenty enough talent to beat OU. Same goes for Oklahoma State. And you can never, ever, under any circumstances, assume Bill Snyder is done making runs at conference championships.

Anyway, the best of the Big 12:

10. Kansas Jayhawks

It has been 10 years, four head coaches and three athletics directors since the last time Kansas won a road game. And there is a lot more Kansas football gore where that came from. There’s a lot of time spent looking up records and superlatives and this-hasn’t-happened-sinces during Kansas games, and none of it shows any signs of abatement.

The best player from last year’s 1-11 squad, defensive end Dorance Armstrong, is now in the NFL. The offensive line, which barely even existed last season, has some bodies this year thanks to a recruiting class that included six offensive linemen and 11 junior college players. But the Jayhawks could improve by a fair amount and still win one or two games this year.

KU lost its Big 12 games by an average of 32 points past year and finished last in the league in:

scoring offense
scoring defense
total offense
total defense
rushing offense
pass efficiency
defensive pass efficiency
punting
kickoff coverage
first downs
third-down conversions
turnover margin
red-zone defense

Seriously, look for yourself. The only question of any real significance for KU this year is whether or not coach David Beaty gets fired by the new athletics director KU just hired.

9. Baylor Bears

Back in the day, it was not uncommon for Associated Press stories to refer to Baylor as “lowly Baylor,” as in, “LAWRENCE — Kansas’ season went from bad to worse Saturday night with a loss to lowly Baylor, which entered the game having lost eight of its last …” and so on and so forth.

This was in the years after the big scandal, see.

No, the one before that.

But now Lowly Baylor is back, kept out of the conference mud only by Destitute Kansas.

Baylor lost to Liberty last year. And to UTSA, and Iowa State and, in fact, everyone else in the Big 12 except Kansas, which it beat 23-13. As you’d imagine, the Bears were right there with the Jayhawks near the bottom of most of the Big 12 stats.

But there was a hazy bright spot: Despite giving up more sacks than anybody else in the league, the Bears were fifth in the Big 12 in passing offense, gaining 287 yards per game that way (for comparison, Big 12 leader Oklahoma State threw for 389 per game).

This was achieved with quarterbacks Charlie Brewer and Zach Smith, who had almost the exact same number of attempts. Smith transferred from Baylor, leaving Brewer as the presumptive starter and one of only two scholarship quarterbacks on the roster.

Injuries last year forced the Bears to give Brewer four starts, earlier than they’d have liked to. And he played pretty well in the eight total appearances he made, completing 68 percent of his passes for 1,562 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Assuming Brewer is at least that good this year, Baylor is in OK shape at quarterback. But there’s still a lot of mess to clean up.

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders

As ever, the Red Raiders moved the ball in 2017. They ranked third in the league in total offense, passing offense and first downs, and they had the Big 12’s leader in all-purpose yards, Keke Coutee.

But Coutee is now on the Houston Texans, and last year’s quarterback, Nic Shimonek, is with the Chargers.

Texas Tech returns three quarterbacks from last year’s team, and added a freshman and a juco transfer. That’s a lot of guys to choose from, but a case can be made for McLane Carter. He did at least start a game last year, but it was such a lousy performance he got benched in the fourth quarter.

This is Texas Tech after all, and that means you can count on one of these guys to throw for about 3,600 yards if it’s a bad year.

The biggest issues last year were on the other side of the ball, and the talk is this should be Kliff Kingsbury’s best defense yet. It would be cruelly ironic if that were the case, but this was the year Texas Tech’s big weakness was the passing game. That sounds a little too close to the truth to trust the Red Raiders to do any better than they did last year.

7. Texas Longhorns

Texas is back … in seventh place.

Look, I’ll save the Heavy Football Analysis for someone else, and, yes, I know Texas had a top-five recruiting class this year, and, yes, I think Tom Herman is an extremely good coach. But I’ve heard all this before with Texas. Texas always has a good recruiting class coming in. The coach is always a proven winner. There’s always a stable of talent that’s dying to bloom, and an offseason where all the malcontents and prima donnas have been cast out.

Texas is picked fourth in the Big 12 this year, but the Longhorns haven’t finished higher than fifth since Mack Brown was still the coach. They finished seventh in the league last year, and until further notice that sounds about right for this year, too.

6. Iowa State Cyclones

It’s easy to forget the Cyclones went 8-5 last year and finished in a tie for fourth in the Big 12 with Kansas State, making it one of the greatest teams in Iowa State history. That happened because of a magical October in which Iowa State beat Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas Tech and TCU, surging from 2-2 to 6-2 and into the Top 25.

Now, Iowa State lost three of its next four games and finished the season with a win over Memphis in the Liberty Bowl, so we don’t have evidence of a juggernaut, here.

What the Cyclones do well is defense. They were No. 2 in the league in total defense last season, and they led the conference in turnover margin despite being last in sacks and in the bottom half in interceptions, a combination that suggests they might have difficulty duplicating that margin again this season.

In two years under coach Matt Campbell, Iowa State has built a miniature identity out of a multiple, constantly evolving defense that is simultaneously weirdly conservative.

With three different starting quarterbacks last year, the Cyclones posted the most efficient passing season in school history. The starter, former walk-on receiver Kyle Kempt, is back for a sixth year of eligibility after an honorable mention All-Big 12 season. The Cyclones face a difficult road schedule, but if they could get to 400 or 420 yards of offense per game without a major dropoff on defense, they could be on their way to another one of the best seasons in school history.

5. West Virginia Mountaineers

When quarterback Will Grier went down last November, West Virginia was 7-3 and outscoring its opponents by 10 points per game. After he went down, the Mountaineers went 0-3 and got outscored by an average of 19 points.

So the good news is that Grier is back for 2018, which could make West Virginia one of the best teams in the Big 12. But with a schedule that includes 11 power-conference teams, the Mountaineers might not wind up with much to show for it.

Further, without much depth, West Virginia is going to be highly susceptible to injury problems. It’s a talented-but-thin team that’s going to put a lot of pressure on its quarterback.

4. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State could very well win the Big 12 this year, which you can say about Oklahoma State almost every year. There is a lot of talent on offense, and there’s a new defensive coordinator, who until further notice we’ll assume is better than the old defensive coordinator.

However: There’s a new quarterback and a new receiving corps.

So this is a new mini-era for the Cowboys, who won 10 games in 2017. They’re going to look great the first half of the season, when they face Missouri State, South Alabama, Boise State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State. It would not be a surprise to see the Cowboys at 6-0 heading on the road to face Kansas State. But OSU’s last three games of the season are at Oklahoma, at home against West Virginia, and at TCU.

We won’t really know how all the new personnel is working until the final month of the season.

3. Kansas State Wildcats

Bill Snyder, you confound me so. You little devil, you, in your long sleeves and your Cortezes. How does it not matter who is on your team? Where do these players come from? How is your entire career one long anecdote in an argument about how talent is overrated?

What do you do in that office of yours all day?

Kansas State went 5-4 in Big 12 play last year, which qualifies as kind of a downer of a year for the Wildcats. Because you want to look at K-State’s conference finishes under Bill Snyder since he returned from retirement?

By all outward appearances, this is going to be a tough year for Snyder, although last year he won eight games despite having cancer and an injured starting quarterback, so you tell me.

You can probably expect platoon quarterbacking again this year — one a runner and one a passer — but most of the offense is back from a team that ranked second in the league in rushing offense and last in passing offense. Kansas State’s passing game will improve this season and the defense, which ranked sixth last year, should be slightly better, but there are no major indications this is going to be a great Kansas State team.

Then again, there rarely are.

2. TCU Horned Frogs

The only thing standing between TCU and a conference championship is quarterback play. Coach Gary Patterson has quickly built a program that’s won 11 games in three of the last four years. He has a deep, talented and extremely good defense coming back, along with great players at the skill positions.

The big question is whether sophomore quarterback Shawn Robinson, a former four-star prospect who played in six games last year, is ready for all this. He attempted just 27 passes in those six games and ran it 23 times for 159 yards.

If Robinson isn’t the guy, freshman Justin Rogers might be. He was a top-50 high school prospect who rejected offers from Oklahoma, LSU, Georgia and Texas. Then there’s Penn transfer Michael Collins and senior Grayson Muehlstein.

The bottom line is, TCU has the talent and the coaching to hang with Oklahoma.

1. Oklahoma Sooners

Yeah, the Sooners lost Heisman winner Baker Mayfield, but there isn’t much reason to expect a dropoff because, what a surprise, Kyler Murray is really good, too.

Murray has not yet shown Mayfield’s passing touch, but he’s a speedy runner who, in tandem with running back Rodney Anderson, should give the Sooners the league’s best offense once again.

The defense, which ranked fourth in the league last season, is young and remains a bit of a question mark. So if you’re looking for a path to failure for the Sooners … an average passing game and an average defense seem within the realm of possibility.

That said, OU is the most talented team in the league and is clearly the favorite in 2018.