Welcome back for week 3 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 1-2 (4-2 YTD). Today, these two games fit both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-6):
The public is liking the Broncos in this one at a 59% clip, but the sharp money is on the Ravens (71%). The line has also shot up from Ravens -4.5 to -6 in most books, indicating huge RLM. The “Sharps” are on the Ravens in this one.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+2.5):
This is a classic Joes vs. Pros/ RLM game. The public sees Aaron Rodgers only needing to win by a FG, so of course they are pounding the Packers. Currently 62% of the public is laying the points with the short road favorites. However, the Redskins are receiving 62% of the “Wiseguy” money. On top of that, the line has gone from Packers -3 to -2.5 in most books (RLM). The sharps were all over the ‘Skins at +3. If you are planning to play Washington, and since 3 is a key football betting number, here are your three options: buy the hook to make the line +3, take them straight up on the moneyline, or wait and hope they go back to +3 right before kick-off.