The 15 Most Valuable Fantasy Football Players After Five Weeks
By Jason Lisk
Over the weekend, I wrote about the least valuable players so far in Fantasy Football. Today, we turn to the most valuable. Again, to calculate value, I’m comparing fantasy points to a weekly baseline at the position, and only including players that were plausibly started in a given week based on starter percentage data (If a guy blows up on the bench but no one started him or he wasn’t on most rosters, that doesn’t really provide value).
But value isn’t just the points gained each week, it’s also the cost paid in draft position, so top players who were drafted highly have to produce more to provide the same value.
Here, then, are the 15 guys you are likely to find on winning teams through five weeks in your league.
#1 JAMES CONNER (+0.56 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
James Conner has been the beneficiary of Le'Veon Bell (the Least Valuable Player so far) sitting out. He’s provided first round production for what was usually a very low cost, either as a waiver wire pickup or late round selection. He’s not likely to continue this rate once Bell reports, but he’s already provided enough value to make him more than worth the pickup.
You’ve also racked up bonus points if your league awards (hair) style points.
#2 PATRICK MAHOMES (+0.51 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Patrick Mahomes, who was the 15th quarterback off the board (though I said back in the spring he was a Top 5 quarterback option), came at a cheap price and is QB1 after five weeks. That means any team that rolled with Mahomes is likely rolling in your league early.
#3 ADAM THIELEN (+0.51 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Adam Thielen has picked up where he left off in 2017, and has 100 yards receiving in every game. He’s emerged as a top receiving option, and did so at about a 3rd round price.
#4 COOPER KUPP (+0.44 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Cooper Kupp is the second-most valuable receiver, only behind Adam Thielen. And neither of them play for the Patriots. Kupp has been a touchdown and big play machine so far in the explosive Rams attack and has built upon what he did as a rookie. He has provided great value considering he was drafted in the same range as Devin Funchess, Jordy Nelson, Robby Anderson, and Jamison Crowder.
#5 JAMES WHITE (+0.41 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
James White has been a revelation so far in 2018. He was already an undervalued commodity in PPR as the Patriots’ receiving back, but now, with Dion Lewis moving to Tennessee and Rex Burkhead on the IR, he has exploded the last few weeks. He was on average the 47th running back taken and has put up top 10 numbers so far.
#6 ALVIN KAMARA (+0.39 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Up until last week, Kamara was the most valuable. He was below the running back baseline, though, in Week 5 in Mark Ingram’s return. Prior to that, Kamara had been amazing, with 611 yards from scrimmage and 6 touchdowns in the first month of the season. I wouldn’t give up on him just yet.
#7 TODD GURLEY (+0.38 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Yeah, Todd Gurley was the first overall pick, but he’s lived up to that expectation and then some and has his owners off to a hot start. He’s already scored 9 touchdowns so far in 2018, ahead of his pace from last season (19 overall). He’s going to finish near 2,000 yards from scrimmage if he stays healthy. This year, there’s been a big advantage to picking first.
#8 MATT RYAN (+0.38 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Matt Ryan struggled in the season opener, and he had only one touchdown against Pittsburgh. But in weeks 2 through 4, he had 1065 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. Ryan was also being drafted outside the Top 100 in most drafts but is on pace to put up some big numbers again in 2018, especially with the Falcons looking like they are destined for shootouts all year.
#9 JARED COOK (+0.36 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
#10 DREW BREES (+0.35 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Drew Brees put up a highlight performance last week at age 39, throwing only three incompletions, and throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns while surpassing Peyton Manning for #1 all-time in passing yards.
He has 11 touchdowns, no interceptions, and is averaging over 300 yards a game this year. To show his value, here are the 10 players right behind him in ADP: Marquise Goodwin, Kerryon Johnson, Julian Edelman, Rex Burkhead, Emmanuel Sanders, Jamaal Williams, Sammy Watkins, Will Fuller, Carson Wentz, and Delanie Walker.
#11 MELVIN GORDON (+0.35 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Melvin Gordon is the third first-round fantasy pick who makes this list, showing the adage “you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it” is false. So far in 2018, he’s added even more to his game and is now on pace to have over 800 receiving yards this season (his career high so far is 476, last year).
#12 ROBERT WOODS (+0.34 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Robert Woods is the third player from the Rams’ offense to make this list. Somehow, the #1 scoring offense in 2017 has provided even more value in 2018. Woods’ career high in yards from scrimmage is 793, and his career high in touchdowns is 5. He’s already at 487 yards and 3 touchdowns through 5 games. The five receivers drafted after Woods in fantasy drafts have provided -0.23 wins this year.
#13 JARED GOFF (+0.30 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
And make it four Rams. Brandin Cooks would have been close also but for his 0 as a result of an early concussion last week. Jared Goff has followed up his breakout 2017 by looking even more comfortable in Sean McVay’s offense, and he’s dropped some dimes. Goff is averaging a ridiculous 10.4 yards per attempt so far, with 12 touchdown passes.
#14 KENNY GOLLADAY (+0.29 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
#15 ZACH ERTZ (+0.27 Wins over Draft-adjusted Value)
Zach Ertz had a relatively slow start in the season opener, but since then he has been on fire, despite the Eagles’ relatively poor first five weeks. He’s been targeted at least 10 times in every game. He has a whopping 41 receptions, and is on pace to easily surpass his career high. He only has one touchdown, so that should increase as the season goes on. He was arguably in the same tier as Gronk and Kelce coming in, but came at a relative discount, going in the 4th round while those other two were 2nd-3rd round picks.
Honorable Mention: Ben Roethlisberger, Isaiah Crowell, Travis Kelce, DeShaun Watson, Eric Ebron