Welcome back for week 12 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 0-1 (12-6 YTD) due to the Saints beatdown of the Eagles. Today, two games fits both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (+3)
The public is all over the Jags in this game (65%), and understandably so, after they almost beat the Steelers last weekend. But, the “pro” money has come in hard on the Bills (62%), causing the line to move from Jags-4 to -3 in most books. This indicates reverse line movement on the Bills.
Cleveland Browns (pk ’em) at Cincinnati Bengals
We have a similar situation in this one, as the public is on the Bengals at a 60% clip, while the sharp money is on the Browns. The line has moved from Bengals -3 to pk ’em in most places, indicating huge reverse line movement on the Browns.
I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about today’s games:
Our biggest need is the Jets by almost double any other game.
The biggest public vs. pro discrepancy is on the Ravens game. The public is on the Ravens, while the Pros are on the Raiders.