Welcome back for week 15 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 2-0 (16-7 YTD), as the Colts and Niners won straight up. Today, one game fit both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+4)
The public is all over the Hawks in this game (75%), and understandably so, as they’ve been red hot, and beat this same Niners team 43-16 just a few weeks ago. But, the “Pro” money has come in on San Francisco (56%), driving this line way down from -6.5 to -4. This indicates huge reverse line movement on the 49ers.
I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about today’s games. His feedback also confirms the Niners as a sharp play.
Biggest need: Eagles
Sharp vs. Public:
Niners +4 vs. Seahawks