Joes vs. Pros Breakdown for NFL Week 16: Sharp Money on the Browns

Welcome back for week 16 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.

Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:

Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.

Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.

If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 1-0 (17-7 YTD), as the Niners beat the Seahawks straight up. Today, one game fit both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement. If you have read this column before, usually the system points to taking dogs. Today it is fading the dog, and going with a favorite:

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-10)

55% of the public is on the Bengals, even with all of their injuries. Maybe they think the number is too high, or just that the Browns won’t be motivated since they are officially eliminated from the playoffs. Nonetheless, the “Pro” money has come in on Browns (59%), driving this line way up from -7 to -10. This indicates huge reverse line movement on Cleveland. To be fair, some of that move is injury related, but it is still a big jump in the line and fits what we look for.

I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about today’s games.

"Biggest need: Jets and Bills. All the parlays are tied into the Bears and Saints, so we will need to get one of those. Sharp vs. Public: Cards +14 vs. Rams"