Joes vs. Pros Breakdown for NFL Week 7: Sharps Are Fading the Saints

Welcome back for week 7 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.

Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:

Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.

Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.

If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 1-0 (10-3 YTD). Today, just one game fits both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

The public is liking the Saints in this one (59%) after their 43-point explosion vs. the Redskins, but the sharp money is on the Ravens (60%). The line has also gone up from Ravens -2.5 to -3 in most books, indicating RLM. The “Sharps” are on the Ravens in this one. Could be a let down spot for the Saints after Drew Brees’ record-breaking night. The Ravens defense is also much better statistically when Jimmy Smith plays…nice nugget on it here: